Al Brooks - Emini End of Day Review for Monday April 3 2023

[Music]  thank you  hi everyone this is Al Brooks I want to  do a quick summary of the trading today  up to nine o'clock Pacific time  and we had on Friday a small pool by  full Trend that day that lasted all day  and Friday was the last day of the week  last day of the month and on the monthly  chart  March was a bicycle bar we've had lots  of bull bars recently closing on their  highs on the monthly chart chances are  the month is going to  go up at least a little bit we've been  alternating since last year back here  back in August it's been bull bear bull  bear bull bear and then we had two bears  here two bulls here but every month has  been alternating  a good looking bicycle bar there here  here here chances are we're going to go  above the high of the bars so it was  likely that we would go above last  month's high today or early this week  and we went above it today  uh I think we're going up to the August  High I've been saying that for for many  months now I think this is the first leg  down from a by Climax and I think we'll  get a lower high in some kind of a  double top maybe with the August high  and then a second leg down we had a gap  up in April 2021 above 4 000 an  acceleration up clearly an important  price and then we've been oscillating  around 4 000 now for 16 months so  clearly an important price the all-time  high is important and two important  prices often create a third price a  measure moved down from the high to 4  000 takes us down to around 3 200 which  is below the pre-pandemic high so I  think at some point in the next few  months we'll form a lower high and we'll  get one more leg down breaking below  this low  what are the chances that we just go  straight up to a new high  um I don't know maybe 40 percent that  will just go straight up to a new high  and if we do get up to a new high we've  had so many reversals here this is  trading image Behavior I think there'll  be sellers around that high a little bit  above a little bit below so if we do get  to a new high I think we'll have a hard  time going much above it I think we'll  get a reversal back down at least to the  middle of the developing trading range  on the open today we had a bull bar  closing near its high when you have a  bike climax day like Friday there are a  couple things that you should know first  is there's a 50 chance that you're going  to get some follow-through buying on the  open and bar one is consistent with that  but there's a 75 percent chance that by  the end of the second hour the market  will go sideways to down for at least a  couple hours so that is what's likely so  here we have a bull bar closing near its  high but we know whatever rally we get  will last five or ten bars probably not  much more than that so you have to be  prepared to get out fairly quickly if it  starts to reverse because we might get a  leg all the way down here this was an  area of agreement on Friday and if this  if this does not go up too far this  would be within reach  the market  Bulls bought at the moving average here  and here and here and here and here and  they're buying just above the moving  average here  possible load of the day but I think  we're going to end up having at least a  couple hours of sideways training at  some point again starting before the end  of the second hour if you buy Above R1  it's reasonable stop below one I would  trade small and add on as it goes up for  example you can buy a book two now  that's a surprisingly strong pair of  bars early in the day it's always in  long it's strong enough to buy the  clothes Traders will buy the clothes  they'll buy at the market and they'll  buy above it we went a little bit above  it and then we had a bear bar closing  near its low and if you're long for any  reason buying above one volume above two  and it goes below three I would get out  because then we have a buy Climax from  yesterday and a wedge one two three and  a good sell signal bar and this could be  a bull trap on the open in the short of  a trend down from the high of the day  and  so reasonable to exit below three  and three three is a disappointing bar  so some of the Bulls who bought the  close of two will try to get out break  even if it gets back from the close of  two area  and it did bar four we went  or it went far above the close of two so  instead of bulls getting out Bulls  bought more  and that's good it increases the chances  that we'll go higher this might be a gap  it might lead to a measure move up so  it's still by the closed Traders are  still buying at the market  and then bar five it's a problem  it's a bear bar closing near its low and  it's a good sized Bear bar it's  reasonable to get out below five you can  always buy again if you get a bull bar  in the next few bars so reasonable to  get out of Longs it's five bars without  a pullback you can argue wedge but five  bars without a pullback probably if this  is a minor reversal and there probably  will be buyers not too far below five so  I would wait for a second cell signal  and not go short below five  six for the Bulls it's a high one it's a  very strong bull Trend a small pullback  bull Trend but it's a bear bar in its  consecutive Bear bar so that is not a  very good high one bar three is not a  very good high one it was a size Clyde  race pause in the bull Trend but it's  still a Buy Signal above three they  bought about three they bought above six  when you get bad buy signal bars in a  bull Trend it reduces the chances that  the bull Trend will last all day it  increases the chances that you'll get a  reversal at least into a trading range  and that's consistent with what we  already know the day after a bike climax  day has a 75 chance of having at least a  couple hours of sideways to down trading  so we're still in a small pullback full  Trend but not good buy signal bars that  increases the chances that we'll get a  reversal before too long as I said maybe  five bars 10 bars maybe a little bit  more  and now we have another high one eight  is a pullback and a small pullback gold  Trend no sign of a top yet  but it's a bear bar so we have a bad Buy  Signal or three six and now eight it's  still a small pullback bull Trend so  Traders will buy for any reason  they'll either buy above a high one a  bad Buy Signal bar or they'll buy at a  new high so they'll buy with the stop  above that if they don't want to buy  above a bear bar here they'll buy with  the stop above that and so far the Bears  are not making money limit order beers  had if they've sold at the five high  it had to fall  22 ticks for them to make money and it  did each line is Five Points that fell a  little bit more than five points so now  limit order bears are starting to make  money and that increases the chances  that the market is transitioning from a  strong bull Trend into either a weaker  bull Trend or a trading range and less  likely into a fair trend  another bull bar closing near its high  so if Traders get out for any reason  they buy again above eight  11.  be consecutive bull bars all closing  near their highs so the first reversal  down will probably be minor you I would  not short below 12 but if the stop order  Bears start making money if the market  Falls far enough below the low of a bar  for Bears to make money a scalp then I  would get out so if it falls 22 ticks  below 12 stop order Bears could make 20  ticks Five Points I would get a  and it's a high one but as I said we're  probably not going to go up much further  so if you buy I would be really really  quick to get out because as I said  should be soon having a leg down or at  least sideways lasting at least a couple  hours  and this is extremely overbought bar 13  and outside down bar about a small  pullback will Trend and a  typo channel so I would not short below  13 but if I'm long I would get out  similar to getting out below five you  can always buy again if 14 or 15 is a  bull bar instead 15 14 was a  surprisingly Big Bear bar and it's a  bear surprise and a buy Climax different  ways to look at this as a wedge one two  three four one two three or one tooth  and then three subdividing into one two  three in any case we know we're going to  have a couple hours of sideways to done  trading 75 certain and this is a really  good looking Bear bar so it's probably  the start of a sideways to down move it  could be simply sideways  but we'll probably get at least two legs  down after a bear surprise and a buy  Climax so Traders will sell the market  sell out of long sell into shorts or  sell below 14. 13 14 we have consecutive  bear Mars one being big and closing near  its low so it sells the clothes it's  still probably a minor reversal but it's  still the close I would not buy at this  point  another bear bar 15. now we have three  consecutive VR bars one of them big and  closing on the flow we should get a  couple legs sideways to down so better  to be short or flat and if you're short  you can get out above 13 and now we have  another bear bar 16 closing nearest low  so right now it's a sell the closed  Market we have a closed below the moving  average we close the gap between the  sixth low and the three high so more and  more Bulls are giving up we have a small  Spike pullback Channel and we're closing  below the bottom of the channel so it's  probably going lower so you sell the  market or sell as 50 sell the market as  soon as 16 closes or you sell at the  stock below 16. 17 it's another very  good bar for the beers so same thing so  the closed cell the market itself for  any reason now every day has a 90 chance  of having at least one swing that goes  40 percent of an average days days and  it comes from a good signal bar on the  way up we have a good buy signal bar  here  so is this going to be the start of a  move up well this high is 76 ticks above  that  and if the average days range is 50  points 40 of that is 20 points which is  80 picks and it will have to go 82 ticks  above one for the Bulls to make 20  points profit and this is 76 ticks above  so the goals are born above one hoping  that this would be a swing trade they  gave up on 14. 14 is a really good Bear  bar  and a good candidate for the start of a  swing down so it's reasonable to sell  below 14 on a stop and try to get out 80  ticks below your entry price so you  enter one ticket below 14. you need 80  ticks to make your 20 points and if  you're exiting with a limit order 80  ticks below your entry it has to go one  more text so you enter one ticket below  14 it has to fall 80 81 ticks more for  you to exit with  um with 20 points so it has to fall 82  ticks below 14. so a lot of bulls will  place limit orders to get out a lot of  bears will place limit orders to get out  um at 82 ticks below 12. and right now  it's selling the closed and looking good  it's still sell the market sell the  clothes if you traded small you can add  on here and add on here and add on here  we may get some Bounce Around the  earlier low of the day the Bulls are  hoping that we get a double bottom in a  rally but this is so strong it's a major  bear surprise at this point  a very surprise increase of the chances  that you get at least a small second leg  sideways to down a major bear surprise  um increases the chances that the day  will either be a trading range day or a  bear Trend day so this could be a spike  and then we could bounce and get a  channel down or it could be a cell  Climax and we could rally back up to the  high and then just go sideways all day  a doji bar in a Cell climax that is a  neutral bar the Bulls equal the Bears  are pretty close to being equal so it's  probably getting close to the end of the  selling and  as I said  there will be Bulls buying back there'll  be Bears buying back shorts 82 ticks  below 14. the Bulls know that so bulls  will start scaling into Lawns betting  that will get a bounce pretty soon maybe  it bounce to 50 percent of the way up  another sell the clothes bar but a tail  and it's after that doji bar and we're  getting pretty close to 82 ticks below  14. so I think it's probably better not  to sell the clothes even though arguably  you could sell the clothes I would wait  and then 20. I think we're 76 ticks down  from the high just like this high was 76  sticks above that this low is 76 below  the Celsius bar 14.  um probably sellers above 21 but we're  right at a profit-taking area so I don't  want to short and I don't want to buy  the first reversal up  and then you get 22. it's a pretty good  bull bar closing near as high a bull  surprise probably will lead to at least  a small second leg up  and might go to 50 up which is this pink  line in my test yesterday's high  probably is going to get at least to the  moving average we'll probably get at  least a couple legs sideways to uh so I  would wait to sell and for the Bulls  they can argue it's a failed breakout  below the load of the day some computers  will see it as a lower Blue double  bottom with one others will see it as a  higher low double bottom with 77  um if you buy I would use a Why Stop  like 10 15 or 20 points down and scale  and lower and most Traders will mess  that up so illustrators are better off  not scaling in so if you buy  um you put a stop below 21.  um and hope that it's the start of a  swing it's probably the start of a  training range it could be a brief  training range and will form a bear flag  and then get down to 82 ticks below 14  or it could um  you know it could go up 20 or 30 bars  and then try to go down later in the day  okay now we have uh Five Bar Six bars up  without a pullback so probably buyers  below 26 but we're getting small bars a  lot of overlap Between the Bars this is  probably not going to go very far up it  looks like limit order trading Bears  will sell above things so Bears will  sell the 25 high and 5 Points higher or  they'll start to sell Five Points higher  because we're probably going up to  yesterday five so it's probably better  not to sell the 26 High when you know at  this point that we're probably going up  here maybe a 50 pullback so if you're  looking to sell with limit orders I  would sell in this area not right here  and Bulls it's six bars without a  pullback we should get a second leg up  after 22 so they can buy 26.  or they can wait for a good stop entry  Buy to me this looks like the early part  of a Thai training range  um we have outside up 28 but small bars  sideways bars it looks like more limit  order trading sellers will sell above  things that goes as it goes up and  they'll buy below things as it goes down  okay this is right around nine o'clock  which is when I stopped the chat room  and I said that we should  um  reach about a 50 retracement that might  lead to some profit taking maybe we'll  come down to the 28 low maybe we'll get  down to 76 ticks below this and it's  possible that this is the start of  another  excuse me maybe we'll get down to 82  ticks below this sell signal bar  right now at this point I think it's  likely that we're going to go sideways  soon but sometimes when you have a cell  climax early in the day you reverse up  in a small pullback bull Trend and it  just keeps going up  like this so sometimes here went up a  little bit you know we have this big big  cell Climax and then we had a big bull  bar closing in its high and we just  drifted up when you get that usually it  does not go far above the earlier High  sometimes it goes above the high  sometimes it does not but sometimes when  you have these big big cell climaxes on  the open in a reversal it can just last  all day in a small pullback pull Trend  and that's what today did it went back  all the way up to the high  so at this point it's a small pullback  cool Trend it's by the market by the  close but we're around 50 percent after  a pretty dramatic move so I think you'll  start getting limit water bear selling  um I would not sell with a stop in a  small pullback pull Trend and the cell  with limit orders I'd like to start to  see some bear bars which we don't have  yet and I don't want to be buying here  because this is strong enough to get a  second leg sideways to down and now  we're at a 50 retracement and we're at  yesterday's high so there will be some  sellers here  and then Thai trading range the high one  above 36 I'm not going to buy it looks  like a tight training range  um you know  he'll Break Out Below a double bottom  double bottom 35 37  um I think you can buy it but if you buy  it you need a wide stock because it may  drift back down to the most recent  higher low gear  will we get all the way down here it's I  think it's less certain now we've  rallied for about an hour in a very  tight um  channel so we may just stay sideways all  day or you know we may get up here so  it's unclear you know if we get down  here there'll be buyers this may  continue in a small pullback bull Trend  up here but it's unlikely to go much  above  and you can see  that's what happened  um 21 is a bad  uh bicycle bar so some well some bears  sold the 21 High and they waited for  Bear bars closing the other lows and  then they sold more like maybe below 39  and they know there's an 80 chance that  they can avoid loss that they'll be able  to get out at least break even  and  so  ignore that let me get rid of that  distraction give her that  okay so for scale and bears if they sold  the um 21 High and then sold more Five  Points higher 10 points higher 15 points  higher or they simply waited for a bear  bar closing near its low and then sold  below it so you sell one take below 3 um  nine there's an 80 chance it's going to  go to the midpoint of your two cells per  cell here at the 21 High and the second  cell below 39 80 chance it'll go to the  midpoint and that would allow you to get  out break even so and it did and it got  down there and reversed up strongly and  this is mostly  bears trying to get out break even on  their trade and Bulls know bears would  do that so you have Bulls buying as well  and you have Bulls hoping for a double  bottom here  and then we just went up in a small  pullback I actually went down a  little bit more and then up  um  second leg down tough to sell after that  and then here you can go a lower low  double bottom you can call it a breakup  although this double bottom not a very  good buy but once you start to get bull  bars closing the other highs maybe here  or here  um it's a buy and then when you start to  get two or three bull bars it's a buy  and then we need to start to get big  bull bars closing near their highs  breaking above a lower high it's a buy  so for the Bears they have a minor lower  high here they have a major lower high  here if we get above that maybe we'll go  up for measurement based upon the  trading range and get up to the high of  the day and here we have consecutive  bull bars with decent bodies with at  least one of them closing there as high  this is a breakout above this so we're  going up for a measure move probably it  could be a measured move based upon the  height of this range or it could be a  measured move based upon the entire leg  up to that breakout point  which gets us near the high of the day  and that's in fact where we ended up  and one other point about where we ended  up at the end of the day  this high is um  it's a reasonable buy just like that was  a reasonable buy we went 76 ticks not  82. this was a reasonable sell we fell  76 not 82. if a person bought here they  were able to make um  Four Points I think it went up exactly  uh 82 ticks right here  um it'd be hard to hold long so if you  bought that I think you get all below  that or that but you could buy again  um over here or over here hoping that it  goes up to 82 ticks above that which it  did or you could buy Above This bull bar  closing out as high if you want higher  probability you buy Above This or you  buy Above That looking for some kind of  a measure move up okay and that is all I  hope everybody had a good day and I hope  you found this helpful