Al Brooks: Stock Market in 2023

[Music]  thank you  hi everyone I'm Al Brooks and I want to  talk about what I think the stock market  might do in the coming year  last year totally overlapped 2021 and  now 2023 is in the middle of last year's  range so we have three sideways years  and I think the year will end up mostly  sideways  the yearly chart eventually is going to  form a trading range that means a couple  legs down a couple legs up lasting about  a decade is a 40 chance that last year  is the start of that training range  on the monthly chart  bear Trends are rare so even though we  sell them off for a year I think trading  range is more likely so in conclusion  I'm expecting  sideways in 2023 a trading range on the  monthly chart and a third consecutive  sideways bar on the yearly chart  heli chart as I said so far sideways  with the past two years  this is the cash index of the s p and  it's a yearly chart and that means every  bar is one year so this is 2022 and this  is what we have so far in 2023 it's also  a semi-log scale because if I used a  regular scaling all of these bars would  be compressed and you would not be able  to see the patterns that took place  now why are you watching this video  because you're looking for ideas  everybody knows the bed started changing  its policy last year  for the past 10 years the FED would do  things to prevent the market from  falling more than 20 or 30 percent down  and therefore Traders were aggressively  buying all the sell-offs and that's no  longer the case and nobody knows where  the fed put is now it might be 50 or 60  percent down and therefore the risk in  the stock market is greater than what it  has been  we have a lot of confusion lots of  reversals on the daily chart a trend  going down for a long time on the weekly  chart  confusion is a Hallmark of a trading  range so when the Market's under trading  range Traders are confident that the  legs up and down will not continue  forever they're looking for reversals so  they buy low they sell high and they  take quick profits  now it's normal for someone starting out  to feel anxious and upset when the  market is in a trading range and if  you're feeling that way instead of being  upset you should view it as your radar  telling you that the market is probably  in a trading range  if that's the case which it probably is  you have to trade it like it's in a  trading range you buy low you sell high  and you take quick profits don't hold  hoping that the market will continue up  indefinitely  this is the yearly chart again a  semiologic scale s p  on television everybody's talking about  a recession and some say the self will  go all the way down to the pandemic low  all the way down  here others are saying that the October  law will hold and that the bull trend is  resuming and that will go up to a new  height  Traders live in a 40 60 world  you should never be more than 60 percent  confident of anything always assume that  the opposite will happen at least 40  percent of the time so when you see  those guys and gals on television  talking with absolute certainty that the  market is going to do something that is  such baloney you should totally ignore  it remember it's a market there are  always buyers and sellers and there are  always enough institutions willing to  take the opposite side of any trade to  keep the probability of the market going  up or down X percent within a 40 to 60  percent range so what's the chance of it  going up 10 down 10 what's the chance  it'll go up 20 before it goes down 20  the probability is always going to be  between 40 and 60 percent so therefore  never be more than 60 certain of  anything  this is the monthly Dow Jones Industrial  Average chart going back for 100 years  you can see patterns clearly here but  you don't see patterns well here that's  because this is normal scaling not  semi-log scaling when you use normal  scaling you're thinking in terms of  points or dollars made or loss and  you use normal scaling when you're  looking at less than a few years worth  of data or if you're looking at five  minute charts  semi-log scaling means you're thinking  in terms of percentage gains or loss is  the market going to go up 10 is it going  to go down 20 percent  if you have more than five years of data  you should switch to semi-like scaling  because otherwise everything far to the  left you can't see what's happening it's  useless so you shouldn't even bother  looking at it  when the recent price is  two to five times greater than the  lowest price on the chart it's usually  better to switch to a semi-like chart  and that's what I did here this is a  semiolog chart of the dial and you can  now see the patterns that took place 100  years ago this chart began around 1920  or so  and this was the Great Depression  a bear trend is a series of lower highs  and lows a bear Market is a sell-off 20  from the high  and there's never been a bear trend on  the yearly chart even when the market  fell 89 percent in 1929 1932  it was not a bear Trend it was one leg  down and not a trend a series of lower  highs and lower lows so bear Market yes  bear Trend no  the yearly chart has never been in a  bear trend  fundamentals well there's one  fundamental fact and that is that the  wealth of the world is increasing we  keep making more people and we keep  increasing productivity so the total  dollars in the world here  is a far greater number than what it was  back here and that's going to continue  throughout your lifetime as long as we  keep making more people and improving  productivity  the world's wealth is going to continue  to increase  cash index yearly chart each bar is one  year and this is semi large scaling  now there are 64 bars on this chart  46 of them are bull bars and 18 of them  are bear bars and that means 72 percent  of the bars are bull bars  and that's why when you watch TV at the  end of the year and you see experts  talking about what to expect next year  they're always bullish because they know  there's a 72 percent chance that the  market will be up next year  yearly chart  we're going to enter a trading range  within the next few years  over the past three years  the Market's up 100 percent  so from this low to where we are now  it's more than a hundred percent this is  the pandemic low and this is the high  that's over 100 gain remember this is  semi-log chart so that the recent prices  are compressed compared to the earlier  prices  now the stock market has an average gain  of eight percent a year so on this chart  over the past 60 years it's averaged  eight percent a year  now with it up 100 in three years and  after many hundreds of percent over the  past 10 years it's going to have to go  sideways to down for many years to get  back to average it'll have to do this  it'll have to do this  what we don't know is  has the trading range begun was last  year the start of the range I would say  40 chance the trading range has begun  and 60 chance we'll get at least one  more leg up maybe to above 5 000 before  it's clearly in a trading range pretty  range you're looking for at least a  couple legs down a couple legs up here  one two three and here several legs up  and down  bottom of the range will probably be 30  to 50 percent below the top of the range  like here down fifty percent down 58 and  here there were several Corrections of  30 and 40 percent  when the Market's in the typo Channel  and it has three pushes here one and  then a bear bar two and then a bear bar  and three in a bear bar that's a type of  a wedge and the channel is tight like  this I call it a parabolic wedge and  whenever you have any kind of a wedge  there's typically going to be some  profit taking it'll attract profit  taking and that usually results in a  couple legs sideways to down  the minimum needed for two legs sideways  to down is three bars so down and then  sideways were up this year and then next  year sideways are down so we're probably  going to be sideways to down for another  year so this year and next year could be  more we could be in a training range  that could last a decade but at a  minimum I'm expecting  two legs sideways to down so one and  then pause or bounce and then two so I  expect next year to be sideways as well  the high that took place January of last  year came in a very unusual environment  the interest rates were basically zero  and the Fed was providing tremendous  liquidity to the economy  the earnings that we had were enough in  that environment to put the price up  here  corporations were paying virtually no  interest so all of their earnings they  get to keep all of their earnings  price is always directly related to  earnings  with the FED basically printing money  corporations had to spend very little on  interest and that means they get to keep  all of their earnings and price is  always some multiple of earnings and if  earnings are high price is going to be  high  but that's no longer the case because  the feds no longer basically printing  money  therefore corporations are going to have  to start to pay higher interest rates  and that comes from their earnings and  that will reduce their earnings and it  might take several years for earnings to  grow to the point where price  back up here is Justified so that's why  we're probably going to be sideways for  a couple of years and in fact we might  be sideways for a decade  look at this bar  the high of the bar is above the high of  that bar the low of the bar is below the  low of that bar it's an outside down bar  and not only is it an outside down bar  it closed near the low of the bar and  more importantly it closed below the low  of the prior bar so that close is below  that low  and as a sign of aggressive selling  and the bear body was bigger than the  past five bars so a bigger bare body so  more conviction  and it's also the third bar in the past  eight bars so we're starting to get more  selling pressure and most of the bars  are mostly overlapping that combination  increased the chances that the next year  would be down which it was  compare that to  last year again an upside down bar we  went above the 2021 High below the 2022  low but the close is above the low of  last year and the close is well above  the bottom we have a fairly conspicuous  tale and the body is not especially big  compared to these other bodies  that collection of facts means that this  is a weaker reversal than what we had  here and that reduces the chances that  will go much further down this year  so it's an unremarkable outside bar  and that has an increased chance of  mostly sideways and this year already is  a third sideways bar  I have two trend lines drawn here  this one goes back 50 years this one  goes back about 10 or 15 years  the market tends to work its way down to  bull friend lines and I did that in  1987.  although it's not all that evident  1987 did pull back to a trend line this  is I think this is the 87 low there's a  trend line there I don't have it drawn  in and it did that  here as well the 2009 low was at a trend  line if we draw a trend line across  these lows this was at a trend line  the market is going to come down to this  full trend line and to that bull trend  line I don't know if it'll come down to  it this year or go sideways for five or  ten years and then with a line going up  the market reaches it and it probably  will eventually get down to this trend  line as well this is around the  pandemic low but if the market were to  go sideways for a few years this would  be up here in the middle of the pandemic  range twenty five hundred twenty seven  hundred something like that so we may in  fact reach this trend line  and when the market reaches a monthly  trend line and reverses it usually leads  to a pretty good leg up so I've got a  trend line here touched it rallied  strongly  and if I draw a low a trend line using  these two lows we reached it here  reversed up strongly so if we get down  here and get a reversal up it'll  probably go higher for several bars if  we get a reversal here  we'll probably go higher for a lot of  ours 10 or 20 bars like that or like  that and we can get there by going down  or by going sideways  this trend line is around 2700 and  that's within reach we might get there  this year but this 50-year trend line it  might take a decade or more to get there  monthly chart Fair Trends are rare  this is a monthly chart of the s p  there have been many many reversal  attempts but only four bear trends  it's hard to see but a series of lower  highs and lower lows that constitutes  the bear trend  87 crashed the market fell more than 20  percent in one day  without first transitioning into a bear  trend  usually if the market is going to  transition from a bull Trend to a bear  trend it has to First evolve into a  trading range so bull Trend sideways and  then down full Trend sideways then down  bull Trend sideways down bull Trend  sideways down  Voltron we're starting to go sideways  but we'll probably have to go more  sideways before we can get any kind of a  big sell-off  again monthly charge so we may have to  go sideways all year  lots of reversal attempts but they  become bull Flags the bull Trend resumes  so only four bare Trends on the monthly  chart in the past 50 years 60 years and  lots of attempts to get Fair Trends but  they were all brief and we never got a  bare Trend it became a pullback and the  market resumed up  so bear Trends are rare is this the  start of a bear Trend probably not  because spare Trends are rare  here's a close-up of the monthly chart  and look at this rally that took place  from the pandemic low you see  consecutive bullmars here consecutive  bullmar is here closing near their highs  decent sized full bodies and it's  happening repeatedly  if you're a bear in your soul at this  high and sold more higher you lost money  so bears are not making money with limit  orders this is all evidence of a strong  bull trend  now compare that to the bear Trend that  we've had lower high lower high  we've only had one pair of consecutive  decent sized bear bars and we've had  lots of bars that were bad follow  through big tail bull bars  many sideways bars there's no lack of  urgency  limit order Bulls if a bull bought that  low and bought more lower he made money  if he bought that low he made money if  he bought that low he made money so  Bulls are making money in a bear Trend  so all of these factors make this a weak  bear Trend it could always become a  strong bear trend  but so far it's a weak bear trend  now I want to show something else here's  the cash index and here's the e-mini the  Futures Contract  and here's a 50 correction of the move  we had a strong reversal up from just  above a 50 correction on the e-mini  but on the cash Index this is the same  as this  the cash index did fall to just below 50  percent and you can look at that and say  oh that's a Divergence that's a sign of  strength  it could also be a sign of weakness  Traders might look at this and say it  didn't fully reach 50 and therefore it  did not adequately test 50 and it  probably is going to have to come down  and hit 50 percent so just because we  have diversions does not mean that the  Futures Contract is stronger and it's  going to go up it could be that it has  not gone down far enough and Traders  think it has to get below this line  before it can go much higher  uncertain that increases the chances of  a sideways Market  here we had an outside down bar followed  by an outside up bar and then here we  had an outside up bar followed by an  outside down bar so on the monthly chart  we have a lot of reversals taking place  and that generates confusion and as I  said confusion usually leads to a  trading range we also have a micro wedge  three legs up up and then a bear bar up  and then a bear bar up and then our Bear  bar and you'd expect at least a couple  legs down one pull back two in fact  we've had several legs down so we've met  the minimum expectation for the Bears  but now we have a microwave on the  bottom down and up down and up down and  up and Traders are expecting at least a  couple legs sideways two up we have one  pullback and we're forming two we could  get several and it could keep going  higher  but I suspect that this is going to  stall somewhere in the middle and we'll  have another test down  the Bulls want a strong breakout above  the August high and then a new high  but I think there's only a forty percent  chance that we're going to keep going  straight up to a high far above this  High it might go a little bit above it  but I don't think that this is a  resumption of this I think it's a  continuation of this so I think we're  going to Rally that looks like this not  all that strong and I think we'll get  another leg sideways to down  a wedge means three failed attempts to  continue the trend those typically take  profits and expect a couple legs down  for a wedge top and for wedge bottom  Bears take profits and you expect a  couple legs sideways two up  and as a guideline  a correction from a wedge usually lasts  about half as many bars as in the wedge  or as in the rally and we've had about  half as many bars as we had in that  entire rally  10 bars down so we'll probably get at  least five bars sideways to up  this is disappointing to the Bulls and  they might conclude that the first leg  up is going to fail which is what I  think I don't know where it'll fail it  could go above that it could fail on  this bar we could suddenly reverse down  but I do think this is a bull leg and a  trading range and that this is a bare  leg and what will become a trading range  second leg up so I think this rally is a  pullback  from a first leg down and that will get  a second leg down before the Bulls have  a chance of resuming the bull trend  as I said this second leg up could end  this month and just be more sideways and  then go down it could go above this it  could go all the way up here and then go  down but I think whatever rally we get  will end up as a bull leg and what will  become a trading range  after a second leg down  we will not necessarily go up to a new  high we could go sideways here for  several years before we get to a new  high but at a minimum I think we're  going to go up and then get a second leg  down and I do think we're going to go  below the October low I do think we're  going to go below the pre-pandemic high  in other words below 3 300 3200  weekly shot I want to make one point  about the weekly chart  and that is this  we had a trend and it pause on every big  round number 2500 2600 2700 3500. except  here accelerated up above four thousand  there was a gap on the weekly chart  there was a gap on the monthly chart  there was a gap on the daily chart all  around four thousand  so clearly a very important price and  last year I said I thought this year  would come down and close all those gaps  which we did  we've been going sideways here around 4  000 now for nine months again validating  how important this price is  the all-time high is important and now  we have another important price four  thousand  when you have two important prices they  often create a third important price  a measure moved down and here's a  measured move from the all-time high to  four thousand  and it's below the pre-pandemic high and  I think there's better than a 50 50  chance we're going to get there at some  point this year  other targets for the Bears  whether or not we go higher before we go  down the pre-pandemic high many stocks  have already fallen below their prepaid  Dynamic highs that's down 31 percent  from this high  on e-mini we have that 50 pullback  that's a magnet which I think we're  going to get below it and I think we're  going to get below this and I think  there's a 50 chance we're going to get  all the way down to a measured move  from the high to 4 000 down here so I  think there's a 50 chance or more that  we're coming down here  probably this year possibly next year  markets often pull back to the middle of  a triangle and this is a backwards  triangle instead of a Contracting  triangle it's an expanding triangle  but it's still a triangle an area of  agreement that the price is fair and  markets often come back to the middle of  a triangle which is around 2700  I don't know that we'll get that far  down  and markets sometimes come all the way  back to the bottom of a by climax this  is 56 percent below that and right now I  think there's only a 20 chance that  we're coming down here  ever I think only a 20 chance we'll ever  get to this low  obviously if we start to sell off  strongly instead of 20 it becomes 30 40  50 60 but right now there's only a 20  chance that the stock market will ever  get back here again  my conclusion as I said sideways in 2023  I want to summarize what I've been  talking about  old friends eventually evolve into  trading ranges on the monthly chart  we've had several small legs down but  bad follow through on the way down  this is a trend we have lower highs we  have lower lows but it's not nearly as  strong as the bull Trend was here as I  said earlier  this is probably a bare leg and a  trading range the sell-off is deep  enough so that Traders are wondering if  a trading range has begun remember  trading range has at least a couple legs  sideways to down and the legs tend to be  several bars Long a shredding range is  usually at least 10 to 20 bars Long  I refer to this as a trading range  instead of a bull flag because I think  Traders believe the first rally will be  sold and will get at least a small  second leg sideways to down  Bulls who bought anywhere up in here are  disappointed and surprised by how many  bars the sell-off lasted on the monthly  chart and how deep the market retraced  and therefore a lot of these Bulls are  thinking the market is transitioning  into a trading range they don't know if  this is the end or if it'll go down  lower in any case a lot of these bulls  will look to sell if the market gets  back to where they originally bought  they want to try to get out around break  even so you have both selling at the  high not Bulls buying at the high there  are bulls going who are going to be  buying at the high but there will be  many who will be selling and that will  result in a second leg sideways or down  on the yearly chart  2022 is a big bear upside down year it's  a pullback in a bold friend however  because it's a big bear bar closing  below its midpoint and because it's  upside down and it's a third leg up a  parabolic wedge and this has gone on a  long time it's not a very good buy  signal bar normally in a pullback  traders buy Above the high of the  fullback bar  there'll be more sellers than buyers  above last year's high so we probably  will not go up very much in the next  couple years  on the other hand we have about a dozen  bars in a very tightful Channel with  mostly bull bars closing near their  highs  that reduces the chance that we'll get  much of a seller so there'll be buyers  not far below last year's loan so if  Traders are willing to buy down here and  sell up here it increases the chances  that will be sideways this year and I  suspect we'll be sideways next year as  well  40 chance the yearly chart has  transitioned into a trading range like  we had here and like we had here  sixty percent chance will go at least up  for a few more bars before the  transition begins  we have a micro Edge top it's a wedge on  the daily chart put on the monthly chart  it's a micro wedge and it's probably  leading to a minor reversal not much of  a bear Trend as I said bear Trend but  not very strong and it's less strong  than this however it's strong enough so  Traders will expect at least a small  second leg sideways to down  there's better than a 50 chance we're  going to get down to this level  this is based upon the March contract  if we don't get there by March the June  price will be different the key is a  measured move from the all-time high an  important price and 4 000 an important  price so I suspect we'll get down here  which is just below the pre-pandemic  high  I think better than a 50 50 chance we'll  get there  I think the worst case is that the  sell-off will get back down to the  middle of this expanding triangle  what's the chance that we get back down  here  this is almost 60 down from the high I  think it's 56 percent down from the high  at this point I think you know maybe a  20 chance we get there and if we go up  to a new high  maybe the chance of ever getting back  down there will be 10 percent  in other words we may get near it but I  don't think we'll get below it  no sign of a major top  we should evolve into a trading range  lasting five to ten years five to ten  bars maybe more and it should begin  within the next several years  but right now there's a 40 chance that  the trading range has already begun  2022 was a bad Buy Signal bar so sellers  above buyers below probably sideways for  at least 2023 and I suspect mostly  sideways for 2024 as well  three consecutive bear bars are unusual  I think that's the first time we've had  it in 60 years or so so I doubt we'll  have a big big sell-off down to the  pre-pandemic low but as I said we make  it a second down a year and then we may  do something like this over the next  several years I know it's not a  spectacular call in this video everybody  wants to hear all the markets going to  go up big next year or the Market's  going to go down big next year but  that's not the case I think this is  going to be more like this kind of stuff  or this kind of stuff and not like the  majority of the bars on the chart where  the market trend is strongly up  again yearly chart probably mostly  sideways this year and probably next  year as well however I also think the  market will develop into a trading range  with a couple  obvious legs down and off within the  next few years and it probably will last  a decade  monthly chart bear Trends are rare so  even though we've sold off a lot I think  we're going to be sideways for the  remainder of the year and I think  there's better than our 50 50 chance  that we're going to get down to that  measured move based upon the all-time  high and 4 000.  again I'm Al Brooks I hope that you  found this helpful and I hope that you  have a good year 

Stock Market in 2023 -- Closing Summary Update

[Music]  thank you  the summary of my opinion is that  probably be sideways for the remainder  of 2023  I have the monthly chart on the left and  the yearly chart on the right I want to  summarize what I have been talking about  obviously all Trends eventually evolve  into a training range  on the monthly chart we've had several  small legs down but the follow through  on the way down has been bad  this is a trend we have a series of  lower highs and lower lows but it's not  nearly as strong as the bull Trend was  here on the way up  this is probably a bare leg and what  will become a trading range and when I  say a trading range I mean at least a  couple legs down and having at least 10  bars in it this is probably a first leg  down and at some point we break above  the Bull's Channel which we might be  doing now and then we get a second leg  down we could have many legs sideways to  down and the legs could go all the way  down here and it could become a very  large trading range but more likely it's  going to be a trading range something  like this and at some point the trading  range will break to the upside on the  early chart we had a trading range a  couple legs down about 10 bars or more  and then eventually you get a breakout  and in a bold trend  no matter how long a trading range lasts  the odds still favor and upside breakout  the more bars that are in the trading  range the more the probability of The  Upside breakout gets closer and closer  to 50 50. but if the trading range is  only 10 bars 20 bars the odds still  favor an upside Breakout  this sell-off is deep enough to make  Bulls wonder if it's a trading range  instead of a bull flag  a bull flag is a reversal sometimes it's  just one bar like this sometimes it's  many bars and then the bull Trend soon  resumes a trading range you have a leg  down you have a leg up and then you have  another leg down at a minimum and this  is deep enough and it's lasted long  enough so that many bulls are wondering  if this is the start of a trading range  and that whatever rally we get will fail  and then we get a second leg or more  sideways to down  now think about this on the way up Bulls  are buying buying buying buying buying  and why did they do that because they  think they're going to make money they  think that one of two things will happen  either if they buy here it just keeps  going up and they can make money or  it'll go down and it'll be a brief move  down and it will get back to the price  where they bought and they can either  get out Break Even or hold and it'll go  up and they'll make money  this is deep enough to make these Bulls  wonder if instead of the Bold friend  resuming immediately we're going to go  sideways for a long time if we're going  to be sideways for another 20 bars or so  many of these bulls will look elsewhere  for Investments for their money and  these rules therefore will look to exit  this position if the market gets back up  here we don't know how many disappointed  Bulls there are but there certainly are  a lot  when you have a deep pullback that lasts  a lot of bars a lot of the bulls will  exit around where they originally bought  so the Bulls who bought up in here a lot  of them are looking to exit sell onto  their position here and if enough do  you'll get a second leg side rooster  down  so I think this sell-off is big enough  and it has lasted long enough so that  there will be a substantial number of  bulls looking to exit around here and  then they'll wait to see how far down it  goes and look to buy again or they'll  look elsewhere for their Investments  I want to say one other thing about  these disappointed Bulls who bought up  here  if the sell-off is very deep I don't  know if this is deep enough but if the  sell-off is very deep a lot of the bulls  will be so disappointed that  they think it'll take a long time before  the market gets back up here and they  don't want to wait several years instead  what a lot of them will do is buy more  once they see a good looking reversal up  this is a good looking reversal lump and  then they'll look to exit at the  midpoint of their two Buys so if a bull  bar here and a bull bar here or if a  bull bar below that low anyway you got a  bull buying here and then other Bulls  flying more here their average price is  here which is around a 50 retracement  if a lot of the Bulls exit around 50  percent you get a lower high around 50  percent and then another leg down and  that's part of the reason why 50  retracements are so common you have  scale in Bulls Bulls who bought bulls  have bought more looking to exit at  their average entry price which is right  around 50 percent and the Bulls sell the  Bears sell all the time  with the bulls selling out of lungs and  the Bears selling into shorts the market  stops going up and it starts to go down  for a second leg  one of the Hallmarks of a trading range  is disappointment  the Bulls obviously are disappointed  that the market has stopped doing this  and it's now doing this  and the Bears will be disappointed if  this leg continues up strongly and goes  up very far  one of the ways that trading ranges  disappoint Traders is they tend to break  out to the upside and then reverse down  they tend to break out of the downside  and reverse up we have an attempt at a  wedge bottom one two three and if we go  up and then down here we'll break below  the wedge in general whenever the market  breaks below a reasonably good bottom  there's a 50 50 chance it'll go down for  some kind of a measured move and there's  a 50 50 chance the bear breakout will  fail and the bull Trend will resume  likewise if you break out of the top  there's a 50 50 chance the bull Trend  will resume and you'll get some kind of  a measure move up maybe based upon the  height of this range and 50 50 chance  there'll be sellers up here and you'll  get another leg down  and that's what typically happens in  trading ranges you often get breakouts  above prior highs like above this above  that and they fail and then you reverse  down and you get breakouts below lows  and they fail and you reverse up here we  have a low we broke below it and we  reversed up  on the yearly chart this was a  reasonably Big Bear bar last year 2022  with a reasonably big body and it was an  upside down bar however at the moment  it's simply a pullback and a bull Trend  like that or like this or like this or  like that  it closed below its midpoint and it's  outside down  good for the Bears it's also a third leg  up one and then a bear bar two and then  a bear bar and then three and then a  bear bar whenever you have three legs up  you're going to attract some profit  taking and a lot of the bulls will give  the Bears a couple attempts to reverse  it into a bare trend so whenever you  have three legs up I call it a wedge and  when it's in a tight Channel I call it a  parabolic wedge you're still probably  going to get a couple legs sideways to  down so this could be one and then  bounce and then two next year so I think  next year will probably be sideways to  down we could go out for two or three  years and then get a second leg sideways  to down but I think 2022 is a parabolic  wedge reversal in a channel that has  lasted a long time so it's probably  going to be the first of a couple legs  sideways to down  it's a pullback and a bold Trend the  Bulls hope it's a bull flag but it's a  decent Bear bar we have a parabolic  wedge there probably are more sellers  than buyers above its high so if we go  above this high  there probably will be more sellers than  buyers somewhere up here and that will  cause the second leg sideways to down  however the Bold channel is very tight  the pullbacks have been Reef a brief  small pullback here and again here it's  unlikely a bull Trend would go from this  into a bear Trend and therefore there  probably are buyers not far below last  year's loan also last year was an  outside bar and right now we're in the  middle third of last year's range  what often happens when you have an  outside bar is the following year or the  following bar is an inside bar so I  would not be surprised if  2023 was a bull inside bar it would be a  better bicycle bar if it was a bull bar  closing near its high for a resumption  of the bull Trend next year but as I  said this is pretty good selling it's a  third leg up  even if this year turns out to be a bull  inside bar I suspect we'll only go up  for a year or so a bar or so and then  have another attempt to go down maybe a  year or two down and more sideways  there have been many reversal attempts  on the yearly chart and most of them  were brief  there's a 40 chance this is the start of  this a trading range or this or trading  range here we had a new High new high  and new low here we had slightly higher  high slightly lower low but right now  there's a 40 chance this is the  beginning of something that looks like  this or like that this is about 10 bars  that's 10 years it's a decade this is  about 10 bars 10 years a decade we're  going to do this or this or some other  kind of trading range at some point  within the next few years  right now there's a 40 chance this will  be the initial high and that we've begun  the conversion into a trading range  sixty percent chance even if we go  sideways to down for another bar or two  sixty percent chance we're going to try  to go up for several more bars Above  This maybe we'll have to go above 5000  and then this becomes a final full flag  and we reverse back down to this low  remember this is the pandemic low it's  56 percent down from the high there's  currently only a 20 chance that we'll  ever ever get there  and if we make a new high here and if it  goes up 5500 or so this then becomes 60  65 percent below the high so the higher  up we go the less likely we will ever  get down to this price you're never  going to see this price again in your  lifetime it's not going to drop down to  a thousand you're never going to see  this price again in your lifetime you'll  get people on television or on the  Internet making outrageous claims that  will get down to these lows but it's  never going to happen  remember when you have three pushes up  in a tight Channel  it's a wedge on a lower time frame chart  and on this time frame it's a parabolic  wedge we have up and then a bear bar up  and then a bear bar and up  on the daily chart this would be a wedge  it was a wedge on the daily chart on the  monthly chart is a parabolic wedge you'd  expect at least a couple legs sideways  to down one pullback two well we've  actually had three one bounce two bounce  three on the monthly chart  when you have a wedge and you get a  reversal typically you're going to get a  couple legs sideways too up  you might get many legs up but at a  minimum we should have a second leg  sideways to up now I'm recording this  chart on February 5th and I know the  market has already gone above last  month's high but I still think it's a  rally in what will become a trading  range I think there's still probably a  60 chance we're going to stay below this  high and then get a second leg down  how far down will that let go well  I still think there's better than a 50  50 chance we're going here this is on  the marsh contract when March expires  we'll be in the June contract and this  price will be different but 4 000 has  been an incredibly important price I  talked about it as it happened I talked  about it after it happened  when you have two important prices the  all-time high and then four thousand  they often create a measured move to a  third important price so I would say  better than a 50 50 chance that this is  the Target that no matter how high up  here we go we'll have to come down here  if we go all the way back up here that  reduces the chances we'll get here it  increases the chances that if we do get  a second leg down which still would be  likely it will hold above this and maybe  form a triangle so one two three bounce  four and then five  breakout mode since it's in a bold Trend  the odds would still slightly favor a  bull Breakout  what's the worst case scenario how far  down can the Bears push this  whenever you have a triangle in this  case we have an expanding triangle it's  an area of agreement  and the market tends to come back to  that area of agreement if we went to the  downside we probably would eventually  rally back here we broke to the upside  and therefore we may come back to the  middle of the expanding triangle which  is here  right now I think we probably will not  get there but I do think we'll get here  on the yearly chart there's no sign of a  top it should evolve into a trading  range lasting at least 10 bars 5 or 10  years and it should begin within the  next few years there's a forty percent  chance that last year was the start of  the process  this is a bad Buy Signal art there are  probably sellers above  2022 but it's a very strong bull Trend  there are probably buyers below 2022  with Buyers below and sellers above  we're probably going to be sideways for  at least another year or two  I know you're watching this video hoping  for clarity and I am giving you Clarity  but it's not the clarity that you want  the clarity is we're probably going to  be sideways for at least another year or  two what you want to hear is this is the  end of the sell-off and we're going  straight up to a new high six thousand  seven thousand or this is the end of the  world and we're going to go below the  pandemic low but that's not what's  likely what's likely is we're going to  be sideways for the remainder of the  year and probably sideways well into  next year  on television they always put people on  who say things that attract eyeballs and  generate a lot of emotion  because that helps them sell ads so  you'll always get people making claims  that the market is going to go up to 10  000 or down to one thousand it's never  going to go down from one thousand it  eventually will go to ten thousand and  eventually will go to a hundred thousand  we won't live long enough to see it but  eventually it will get up there  because I'm talking about trading range  it's going to be different from most of  the bars on the chart most of the bars  on the yearly chart we've been going up  and on the monthly chart I'm only  showing a small part of it we've also  have been going up mostly we've had some  sideways times for a year or two or  three but I think this is going to be  another one of those sideways times and  not like this and on the yearly chart as  I said 40 chance we've begun this 60  chance and we'll only be sideways for  two or three years and then we'll get  another push-up but at some point in the  next few years  we're going to begin this so I do not  think there's much left to the upside  maybe we'll go fifty five hundred six  thousand and then enter a trading range  for a decade or so 40 chance it has to  begun  again yearly chart probably mostly slide  race this year and probably next year as  well however I also think the market  will develop into a trading range with a  couple  obvious legs down and off within the  next few years and it probably will last  a decade  monthly chart bear Trends are rare so  even though we've sold off a lot I think  we're going to be sideways for the  remainder of the year and I think  there's better than our 50 50 chance  that we're going to get down to that  measured move based upon the all-time  high and a 4 000.  again I'm Al Brooks I hope that you  found this helpful and I hope that you  have a good year 

Emini Opening Review Thursday March 23 2023 - Al Brooks

[Music]  thank you  hi everyone this is Al Brooks and I want  to quickly review what took place today  as I said in the open yesterday had  multiple big reversals and I thought  today would be an inside day that we  would not go above yesterday's high we  would not go below yesterday's low and  that we would stay pretty much in the  middle third of yesterday's range we had  a big gap up on the open and bar one had  a prominent tail on top and that's not a  good stop entry bar for the Bulls or the  Bears bar two a bear inside bar with a  tail below tail above probably a limit  order Market sellers above somewhere  around the two averages and buyers below  and then bar three we've got a new low  of the day and a new high of the day and  a close above one so we're probably  going higher I don't know how much  higher maybe to the top of the middle  third of yesterday's range maybe to the  top of yesterday's cell climax up here  maybe all the way up there it's not  strongly bullish we have a big tail the  bar is not very big it did not close  above the moving average but it did  close above one  and then five we have a second reversal  down bar two bar five but it's a doji  bar after two bull bars we're probably  always in long and we're probably going  higher so I would not sell below five  six it's a high one the Bulls are hoping  it's a bull Trend that began with two  but it's four bars sideways with  prominent Tails not all that bullish  seven we went up we went down a possible  wedge with one four and seven but I  would not sell below seven it's a bull  bar and we've only had one beer bar  today so probably more sideways two up  eight a bull inside bar closing on its  high we did not go below seven we did  not trigger the cell it's a buy and a  small pullback full Trend but I'm not  sure how high up we go so if you buy  I would be reasonably quick to get out  if you're disappointed  bar 10 a micro double top nine a micro  wedge with seven nine ten a wedge with  four  seven and ten but only a tiny body and a  small pullback bull Trend I would not  take that short eleven a high one  similar to six similar to eight but two  doe juice probably more sideways to the  moving average 12 now a wedge different  ways to look at it four or seven and  then ten and twelve  but three doji's right above the moving  average I would not take that short  and then 14 outside up a bull bar  closing near its high a double bottom  11. it's a possible buy but so far not  all that bullish we may break above 12  and accelerate up  always in Long nothing to sell but not a  great Buy  15. now we have consecutive bull bars  closing on their highs and both above  the moving average it looks like we're  probably going to break above 12. and if  it's a big bar closing near its high it  could lead to a trend up I still think  we'll have a hard time getting much  Above This  and I don't think we'll get much above  the  um  middle third of yesterday's range and  then 16 we have a bowl surprise so we're  probably going to get at least a small  second leg sideways to up it's by the  market by the close three consecutive  boulevards closing near their highs  we'll probably get a follow through bull  bar and we did 17 but now we've had two  bull bars breaking above 12 and we're in  the middle of yesterday's training range  we're probably going to get a pullback  soon  however we should get a second leg up 18  a high one for the doji bar I think we  may go up a little bit but I suspect  that it's warning us that there's  I suspect that it's warning us that  there's not much left to the trend and  that will soon start to form a trading  range  and so it's not a great High one and you  can see we broke above at 19 but a small  bar and a tail and then 20 a bigger tail  probably a microwed 17 19 20. 21 I would  not buy the 21 Low however I would  consider buying near the moving average  I would get out of Long's below 21 or  you can use a wide stop and buy more  lower  22 a bear surprise after a black climax  we'll probably get a couple legs  sideways to down to the moving average  23 a high one but after the Bear bar 22  we should get a second leg down so I do  not want to buy Above 23 and then  another bear surprise 24 a trading range  is more likely than a bear Trend so  there probably are more Bulls buying the  clothes and buying the moving average  than there are bears selling the clothes  so I still would not sell I'll have one  bar 25 but a tail and a six bar bear  micro Channel and there's room for the  moving average probably sellers about 25  I would not take the buy and for the  bearish 26 a double top Bear Flag 23 but  a bull bar and probably buyers that's  the moving average not good for stop  entry Traders limit order trading 28 a  20 Gap bar by as the moving average with  a decent body and it's a wedge bull flag  22 24 and 27.  but the chart is in a trading range and  the rally is not particularly strong  it's probably a bull leg in a trading  range and therefore we should disappoint  the Bulls and that means we should fall  at least a tick below the 12 high and  therefore I don't want to buy Above 28  I'll wait to see if we break up strongly  to the upside did not 30 that's a bear  bar closing near its low I think we're  going to dip below the 12 high but it's  a tight training range two bull bars  right above the moving average not a  good buy excuse me not a good sell and  then 31 a double bottom 28 put a bear  doji after a big bear bar and we should  fall below the 12 high so I'm not going  to buy Above 31.  um 32 a low one and a small pullback  bear Trend but a bull bar  at the moving average I would not sell  below 32. there will be some Traders  selling below the 28 low the Bulls will  give up there the Bears might sell  hoping for a measure move down  I think we're going to drop at least one  tick below the 12 High we might get down  to the 14 low I'm not sure that we'll  get a lot lower  33 a breakout below the double bottom a  breakout below the wedge bull flag  um might go down for a measured move 35  a micro double bottom a possible failed  breakout we should get a second leg down  after 33 so probably sellers above um  35. and that's it for the first  um  90 minutes until that's the that's we're  around nine o'clock so I'm going to stop  talking right here this sell-off is  probably a bare leg and a trading range  we're testing the 14 low we're testing  the 60 Minute moving average it's  possible it could be an endless pullback  and a bear Trend but it's more likely  it's going to be the opposite of this  this was a bootleg in a trading range  and we're currently probably in a bear  leg in a trading range all right hope  everybody has a good day thank you 

Al Brooks - Emini End of Day Review for Monday April 3 2023

[Music]  thank you  hi everyone this is Al Brooks I want to  do a quick summary of the trading today  up to nine o'clock Pacific time  and we had on Friday a small pool by  full Trend that day that lasted all day  and Friday was the last day of the week  last day of the month and on the monthly  chart  March was a bicycle bar we've had lots  of bull bars recently closing on their  highs on the monthly chart chances are  the month is going to  go up at least a little bit we've been  alternating since last year back here  back in August it's been bull bear bull  bear bull bear and then we had two bears  here two bulls here but every month has  been alternating  a good looking bicycle bar there here  here here chances are we're going to go  above the high of the bars so it was  likely that we would go above last  month's high today or early this week  and we went above it today  uh I think we're going up to the August  High I've been saying that for for many  months now I think this is the first leg  down from a by Climax and I think we'll  get a lower high in some kind of a  double top maybe with the August high  and then a second leg down we had a gap  up in April 2021 above 4 000 an  acceleration up clearly an important  price and then we've been oscillating  around 4 000 now for 16 months so  clearly an important price the all-time  high is important and two important  prices often create a third price a  measure moved down from the high to 4  000 takes us down to around 3 200 which  is below the pre-pandemic high so I  think at some point in the next few  months we'll form a lower high and we'll  get one more leg down breaking below  this low  what are the chances that we just go  straight up to a new high  um I don't know maybe 40 percent that  will just go straight up to a new high  and if we do get up to a new high we've  had so many reversals here this is  trading image Behavior I think there'll  be sellers around that high a little bit  above a little bit below so if we do get  to a new high I think we'll have a hard  time going much above it I think we'll  get a reversal back down at least to the  middle of the developing trading range  on the open today we had a bull bar  closing near its high when you have a  bike climax day like Friday there are a  couple things that you should know first  is there's a 50 chance that you're going  to get some follow-through buying on the  open and bar one is consistent with that  but there's a 75 percent chance that by  the end of the second hour the market  will go sideways to down for at least a  couple hours so that is what's likely so  here we have a bull bar closing near its  high but we know whatever rally we get  will last five or ten bars probably not  much more than that so you have to be  prepared to get out fairly quickly if it  starts to reverse because we might get a  leg all the way down here this was an  area of agreement on Friday and if this  if this does not go up too far this  would be within reach  the market  Bulls bought at the moving average here  and here and here and here and here and  they're buying just above the moving  average here  possible load of the day but I think  we're going to end up having at least a  couple hours of sideways training at  some point again starting before the end  of the second hour if you buy Above R1  it's reasonable stop below one I would  trade small and add on as it goes up for  example you can buy a book two now  that's a surprisingly strong pair of  bars early in the day it's always in  long it's strong enough to buy the  clothes Traders will buy the clothes  they'll buy at the market and they'll  buy above it we went a little bit above  it and then we had a bear bar closing  near its low and if you're long for any  reason buying above one volume above two  and it goes below three I would get out  because then we have a buy Climax from  yesterday and a wedge one two three and  a good sell signal bar and this could be  a bull trap on the open in the short of  a trend down from the high of the day  and  so reasonable to exit below three  and three three is a disappointing bar  so some of the Bulls who bought the  close of two will try to get out break  even if it gets back from the close of  two area  and it did bar four we went  or it went far above the close of two so  instead of bulls getting out Bulls  bought more  and that's good it increases the chances  that we'll go higher this might be a gap  it might lead to a measure move up so  it's still by the closed Traders are  still buying at the market  and then bar five it's a problem  it's a bear bar closing near its low and  it's a good sized Bear bar it's  reasonable to get out below five you can  always buy again if you get a bull bar  in the next few bars so reasonable to  get out of Longs it's five bars without  a pullback you can argue wedge but five  bars without a pullback probably if this  is a minor reversal and there probably  will be buyers not too far below five so  I would wait for a second cell signal  and not go short below five  six for the Bulls it's a high one it's a  very strong bull Trend a small pullback  bull Trend but it's a bear bar in its  consecutive Bear bar so that is not a  very good high one bar three is not a  very good high one it was a size Clyde  race pause in the bull Trend but it's  still a Buy Signal above three they  bought about three they bought above six  when you get bad buy signal bars in a  bull Trend it reduces the chances that  the bull Trend will last all day it  increases the chances that you'll get a  reversal at least into a trading range  and that's consistent with what we  already know the day after a bike climax  day has a 75 chance of having at least a  couple hours of sideways to down trading  so we're still in a small pullback full  Trend but not good buy signal bars that  increases the chances that we'll get a  reversal before too long as I said maybe  five bars 10 bars maybe a little bit  more  and now we have another high one eight  is a pullback and a small pullback gold  Trend no sign of a top yet  but it's a bear bar so we have a bad Buy  Signal or three six and now eight it's  still a small pullback bull Trend so  Traders will buy for any reason  they'll either buy above a high one a  bad Buy Signal bar or they'll buy at a  new high so they'll buy with the stop  above that if they don't want to buy  above a bear bar here they'll buy with  the stop above that and so far the Bears  are not making money limit order beers  had if they've sold at the five high  it had to fall  22 ticks for them to make money and it  did each line is Five Points that fell a  little bit more than five points so now  limit order bears are starting to make  money and that increases the chances  that the market is transitioning from a  strong bull Trend into either a weaker  bull Trend or a trading range and less  likely into a fair trend  another bull bar closing near its high  so if Traders get out for any reason  they buy again above eight  11.  be consecutive bull bars all closing  near their highs so the first reversal  down will probably be minor you I would  not short below 12 but if the stop order  Bears start making money if the market  Falls far enough below the low of a bar  for Bears to make money a scalp then I  would get out so if it falls 22 ticks  below 12 stop order Bears could make 20  ticks Five Points I would get a  and it's a high one but as I said we're  probably not going to go up much further  so if you buy I would be really really  quick to get out because as I said  should be soon having a leg down or at  least sideways lasting at least a couple  hours  and this is extremely overbought bar 13  and outside down bar about a small  pullback will Trend and a  typo channel so I would not short below  13 but if I'm long I would get out  similar to getting out below five you  can always buy again if 14 or 15 is a  bull bar instead 15 14 was a  surprisingly Big Bear bar and it's a  bear surprise and a buy Climax different  ways to look at this as a wedge one two  three four one two three or one tooth  and then three subdividing into one two  three in any case we know we're going to  have a couple hours of sideways to done  trading 75 certain and this is a really  good looking Bear bar so it's probably  the start of a sideways to down move it  could be simply sideways  but we'll probably get at least two legs  down after a bear surprise and a buy  Climax so Traders will sell the market  sell out of long sell into shorts or  sell below 14. 13 14 we have consecutive  bear Mars one being big and closing near  its low so it sells the clothes it's  still probably a minor reversal but it's  still the close I would not buy at this  point  another bear bar 15. now we have three  consecutive VR bars one of them big and  closing on the flow we should get a  couple legs sideways to down so better  to be short or flat and if you're short  you can get out above 13 and now we have  another bear bar 16 closing nearest low  so right now it's a sell the closed  Market we have a closed below the moving  average we close the gap between the  sixth low and the three high so more and  more Bulls are giving up we have a small  Spike pullback Channel and we're closing  below the bottom of the channel so it's  probably going lower so you sell the  market or sell as 50 sell the market as  soon as 16 closes or you sell at the  stock below 16. 17 it's another very  good bar for the beers so same thing so  the closed cell the market itself for  any reason now every day has a 90 chance  of having at least one swing that goes  40 percent of an average days days and  it comes from a good signal bar on the  way up we have a good buy signal bar  here  so is this going to be the start of a  move up well this high is 76 ticks above  that  and if the average days range is 50  points 40 of that is 20 points which is  80 picks and it will have to go 82 ticks  above one for the Bulls to make 20  points profit and this is 76 ticks above  so the goals are born above one hoping  that this would be a swing trade they  gave up on 14. 14 is a really good Bear  bar  and a good candidate for the start of a  swing down so it's reasonable to sell  below 14 on a stop and try to get out 80  ticks below your entry price so you  enter one ticket below 14. you need 80  ticks to make your 20 points and if  you're exiting with a limit order 80  ticks below your entry it has to go one  more text so you enter one ticket below  14 it has to fall 80 81 ticks more for  you to exit with  um with 20 points so it has to fall 82  ticks below 14. so a lot of bulls will  place limit orders to get out a lot of  bears will place limit orders to get out  um at 82 ticks below 12. and right now  it's selling the closed and looking good  it's still sell the market sell the  clothes if you traded small you can add  on here and add on here and add on here  we may get some Bounce Around the  earlier low of the day the Bulls are  hoping that we get a double bottom in a  rally but this is so strong it's a major  bear surprise at this point  a very surprise increase of the chances  that you get at least a small second leg  sideways to down a major bear surprise  um increases the chances that the day  will either be a trading range day or a  bear Trend day so this could be a spike  and then we could bounce and get a  channel down or it could be a cell  Climax and we could rally back up to the  high and then just go sideways all day  a doji bar in a Cell climax that is a  neutral bar the Bulls equal the Bears  are pretty close to being equal so it's  probably getting close to the end of the  selling and  as I said  there will be Bulls buying back there'll  be Bears buying back shorts 82 ticks  below 14. the Bulls know that so bulls  will start scaling into Lawns betting  that will get a bounce pretty soon maybe  it bounce to 50 percent of the way up  another sell the clothes bar but a tail  and it's after that doji bar and we're  getting pretty close to 82 ticks below  14. so I think it's probably better not  to sell the clothes even though arguably  you could sell the clothes I would wait  and then 20. I think we're 76 ticks down  from the high just like this high was 76  sticks above that this low is 76 below  the Celsius bar 14.  um probably sellers above 21 but we're  right at a profit-taking area so I don't  want to short and I don't want to buy  the first reversal up  and then you get 22. it's a pretty good  bull bar closing near as high a bull  surprise probably will lead to at least  a small second leg up  and might go to 50 up which is this pink  line in my test yesterday's high  probably is going to get at least to the  moving average we'll probably get at  least a couple legs sideways to uh so I  would wait to sell and for the Bulls  they can argue it's a failed breakout  below the load of the day some computers  will see it as a lower Blue double  bottom with one others will see it as a  higher low double bottom with 77  um if you buy I would use a Why Stop  like 10 15 or 20 points down and scale  and lower and most Traders will mess  that up so illustrators are better off  not scaling in so if you buy  um you put a stop below 21.  um and hope that it's the start of a  swing it's probably the start of a  training range it could be a brief  training range and will form a bear flag  and then get down to 82 ticks below 14  or it could um  you know it could go up 20 or 30 bars  and then try to go down later in the day  okay now we have uh Five Bar Six bars up  without a pullback so probably buyers  below 26 but we're getting small bars a  lot of overlap Between the Bars this is  probably not going to go very far up it  looks like limit order trading Bears  will sell above things so Bears will  sell the 25 high and 5 Points higher or  they'll start to sell Five Points higher  because we're probably going up to  yesterday five so it's probably better  not to sell the 26 High when you know at  this point that we're probably going up  here maybe a 50 pullback so if you're  looking to sell with limit orders I  would sell in this area not right here  and Bulls it's six bars without a  pullback we should get a second leg up  after 22 so they can buy 26.  or they can wait for a good stop entry  Buy to me this looks like the early part  of a Thai training range  um we have outside up 28 but small bars  sideways bars it looks like more limit  order trading sellers will sell above  things that goes as it goes up and  they'll buy below things as it goes down  okay this is right around nine o'clock  which is when I stopped the chat room  and I said that we should  um  reach about a 50 retracement that might  lead to some profit taking maybe we'll  come down to the 28 low maybe we'll get  down to 76 ticks below this and it's  possible that this is the start of  another  excuse me maybe we'll get down to 82  ticks below this sell signal bar  right now at this point I think it's  likely that we're going to go sideways  soon but sometimes when you have a cell  climax early in the day you reverse up  in a small pullback bull Trend and it  just keeps going up  like this so sometimes here went up a  little bit you know we have this big big  cell Climax and then we had a big bull  bar closing in its high and we just  drifted up when you get that usually it  does not go far above the earlier High  sometimes it goes above the high  sometimes it does not but sometimes when  you have these big big cell climaxes on  the open in a reversal it can just last  all day in a small pullback pull Trend  and that's what today did it went back  all the way up to the high  so at this point it's a small pullback  cool Trend it's by the market by the  close but we're around 50 percent after  a pretty dramatic move so I think you'll  start getting limit water bear selling  um I would not sell with a stop in a  small pullback pull Trend and the cell  with limit orders I'd like to start to  see some bear bars which we don't have  yet and I don't want to be buying here  because this is strong enough to get a  second leg sideways to down and now  we're at a 50 retracement and we're at  yesterday's high so there will be some  sellers here  and then Thai trading range the high one  above 36 I'm not going to buy it looks  like a tight training range  um you know  he'll Break Out Below a double bottom  double bottom 35 37  um I think you can buy it but if you buy  it you need a wide stock because it may  drift back down to the most recent  higher low gear  will we get all the way down here it's I  think it's less certain now we've  rallied for about an hour in a very  tight um  channel so we may just stay sideways all  day or you know we may get up here so  it's unclear you know if we get down  here there'll be buyers this may  continue in a small pullback bull Trend  up here but it's unlikely to go much  above  and you can see  that's what happened  um 21 is a bad  uh bicycle bar so some well some bears  sold the 21 High and they waited for  Bear bars closing the other lows and  then they sold more like maybe below 39  and they know there's an 80 chance that  they can avoid loss that they'll be able  to get out at least break even  and  so  ignore that let me get rid of that  distraction give her that  okay so for scale and bears if they sold  the um 21 High and then sold more Five  Points higher 10 points higher 15 points  higher or they simply waited for a bear  bar closing near its low and then sold  below it so you sell one take below 3 um  nine there's an 80 chance it's going to  go to the midpoint of your two cells per  cell here at the 21 High and the second  cell below 39 80 chance it'll go to the  midpoint and that would allow you to get  out break even so and it did and it got  down there and reversed up strongly and  this is mostly  bears trying to get out break even on  their trade and Bulls know bears would  do that so you have Bulls buying as well  and you have Bulls hoping for a double  bottom here  and then we just went up in a small  pullback I actually went down a  little bit more and then up  um  second leg down tough to sell after that  and then here you can go a lower low  double bottom you can call it a breakup  although this double bottom not a very  good buy but once you start to get bull  bars closing the other highs maybe here  or here  um it's a buy and then when you start to  get two or three bull bars it's a buy  and then we need to start to get big  bull bars closing near their highs  breaking above a lower high it's a buy  so for the Bears they have a minor lower  high here they have a major lower high  here if we get above that maybe we'll go  up for measurement based upon the  trading range and get up to the high of  the day and here we have consecutive  bull bars with decent bodies with at  least one of them closing there as high  this is a breakout above this so we're  going up for a measure move probably it  could be a measured move based upon the  height of this range or it could be a  measured move based upon the entire leg  up to that breakout point  which gets us near the high of the day  and that's in fact where we ended up  and one other point about where we ended  up at the end of the day  this high is um  it's a reasonable buy just like that was  a reasonable buy we went 76 ticks not  82. this was a reasonable sell we fell  76 not 82. if a person bought here they  were able to make um  Four Points I think it went up exactly  uh 82 ticks right here  um it'd be hard to hold long so if you  bought that I think you get all below  that or that but you could buy again  um over here or over here hoping that it  goes up to 82 ticks above that which it  did or you could buy Above This bull bar  closing out as high if you want higher  probability you buy Above This or you  buy Above That looking for some kind of  a measure move up okay and that is all I  hope everybody had a good day and I hope  you found this helpful 

Al Brooks - Emini End of Day Review for Tuesday April 11, 2023

[Music]  thank you  hi everyone I'm Al Brooks and I was in  the chat room today until nine o'clock  Pacific time which was bar 30 and I want  to just go over what I saw taking place  today  on the open the first part of the day  was a bear bar but it had a big tail and  the second bar is a bear bar as well the  Bears were hoping that this was the  start of a bear Trend that would last  all day but with those big tails and the  big rally at the end of yesterday it's  more likely a minor reversal we're  probably going to get down at least to  the moving average we're close to the  moving average we have two bear bars we  should get there  we had three consecutive air bars bar  three so for the Bulls they're hoping  it's a high one bull flag after this  full Trend probably would be sellers at  the high of three so I would not buy  Above three and then the Bears they're  getting an early Fair Trend with three  consecutive bear bars but the bear bars  are not big they're not closing on their  lows bar four is a pullback in that bear  Trend but it has a bull body yes I think  we're going to go below bar four I think  we're going to go below the voting  average but I'm not confident that we  will go much lower so I would want to  sell blow bar for we got a couple legs  down we tried to reverse up from the  moving average for seven but it has a  prominent tail a small body it's a high  tube by a second by one and two but  four of the first six bars five of the  first six bars have bare bodies so it's  probably a minor reversal the Bears  tried to get a lower high double top  with nine and four they have an outside  down bar but to me this looks like a  limit order Market it looks like Traders  are buying at new lows and they're  buying blow bars they're selling low  bars and looking for scalps these lines  are five points apart and therefore it's  difficult to make even five points when  the buy bars are this size most Traders  should simply wait for the bars to get  bigger or wait for better signals the  bolts at this point now have a wedge we  have three reversals up one two and  three and it's at the moving average  it's about a fifty percent retracement  of that rally but it's only a doji bar  and six of the first  eight bars have bare bodies so it's not  a very strong buy you could wait for 11  or 11 a bull bar closing near its high  it's not especially big it's a possible  low of the day possible rally  you could buy or you could wait for the  breakout above the high of the day given  the bad buy a single bar and all the  bear bars I think it's probably better  to wait and you can see here we have two  decent sized bull bars 11 and 12 closing  near their highs  but the rally could not even get back to  the open of the day so March 12th the  end of the first hour we opened here  we'd close on there and the first bar  was a bear bar so that's not especially  good for the Bulls the Bears made  another attempt at a double Top This  high this high and another outside down  bar that's a reasonable cell taking a  chance that will break below the wedge  and go for a measure move down I said in  the room today that when you have these  wedge bull flags on the open and the  market breaks below it fifty percent of  the time it'll go down for measured move  based upon the height of the wedge and  fifty percent of the time there'll be  buyers below and you'll reverse up we  broke out 14 below that low but 14 close  above that low so that's not good for  the Bears hoping for a bear Trend and in  15 a bigger Bear bar closing below 10  but did not close below 14. and  therefore it's not very strong selling  the bar it's fine to sell at the lower  of their Trend if the bear trend is  strong but this is not stronger  14 did not close on its low did not  close below 10. 15 closed near its low  but could not close below 14. if a bear  trend is not strong it's usually better  not to sell at the low it's usually  better to sell rallies the Bulls got a  surprisingly good-looking Bull Bar six  game big bull bar closing on its high  and we have a wedged one two and three  we have a breakdown below the wedge and  a reversal up that's a common reversal  pattern on the open so it's an okay  swing I talked about it as being a  Walmart trade where you buy one tick  above your place is stopped one tick  below and you place a limit order to  take profits 20 points above which is up  there and go to Walmart you can come  back in a couple hours and chances are  you'll do just fine so if you bought  that and had a limit order up here it  came back in a couple hours you would  have been disappointed that we've only  gone up about 10 points after a couple  of hours today's range was small  I talked about how  in here the range was only about 15  points strong 20 points tall which is  about half of an average day's range and  you can see in the daily chart over here  that little air doji is today it's a  small range and I said the range would  probably double I said it could double  in one of three ways it could break  above the upside and go up for a measure  move it could break below the downside  and fall for a measure move or it could  go a little bit above in a little bit  below and close somewhere in the middle  it broke above the upside but look at  the breakout bar bar 33  it did not close on its high it did not  close far above the open in fact it  looks like it closed right above the  earlier high and then look at the  follow-through of Bear bar so for the  Bulls at the bull trend  and they're both front seats here we're  getting higher lows we're getting higher  highs and we have a Breakout  we have a high a higher high another  higher high if we have a breakout here  it's a new high today but it's not  strongly bullish the bars are not all  that big they're not closing on their  highs so therefore this bull trend  is not a strong type of bull Trend and  when you get a bull Trend that's not all  that strong normally it's not going to  last all day if we start to get gaps  that remain open it could last all day  but that's not what's happening we broke  above here and this body overlapped  these bodies so we did not even get a  gap between the bodies and then we had  another breakout another breakout here  we have our body Gap there's a gap  between the  body here and the breakout Point bodies  here that's good but these other  breakouts did not have even body gaps  and if you're not getting at least two  body gaps in a bull Trend it's usually  not going to last all day so we know  this is probably not going to last all  day the bars are small and therefore  it's difficult for even limit order  version to make money  selling at new highs so if a bear sold  this high and tried to exit with five  points they did not make money if they  sold this high and tried to exit with  five points did not make money so you  can't sell on the way up even with limit  orders however  buying is not all that good either  normally if you have a good swing by  you're going to get filled within a  couple hours so you'll get your 20  points within a couple hours and that's  not happening here so I'm not good for  the bears but for the Bulls it's not  particularly good either  and when a rally is not all that strong  rather than buying with a stop at a new  high  and betting the breakout will lead to a  big trend is better to buy pullbacks so  the Bulls have what with the stop one  take above that are disappointed by this  the Bulls who bought with a stop one  tick above the high of the day are  disappointed by that tail and by the  bare bars  and these shorts I would not take these  shorts it's the second reversal short  you can call it a wedge three legs up  one two three it's a low tube top second  reversing down from the new high a bear  bar closing there it's low but it's  still a small pullback Trend the  pullbacks are smaller and therefore it's  not a particularly good or short you  could take a chance and sell if you did  you would exit above a bull bar closing  near its high above 39 and if you're in  a bull and if you exited below any Bear  bar that or that and it's reasonable to  exit for a bear bar closing your arms  alone you can buy back  above a bull bar flows in there at Sonic  so reasonable for bolster example of  that you can buy again there and then  this  they barely made Five Points would you  exit below a bull bar I would not I  would exit the size of a scalp below or  bull bar or I'd exit one tick below or  Bear bar closing below is midpoint if  you're exited below 43 right  you'd buy again above a full bar closing  nearest High 46.  I want to show something I'm a  PowerPoint and we're doing it about this  it's still a small political friend but  the Bulls are not making much money  they've had two three hours can make 20  points they could not so something's  wrong with this trend and then I suspect  we're going to come down to test near  the open or near the low and we've  tested below the open  but not all the way down to the low we  tested the 60 Minute moving average for  this dash line which has been important  resistance all day but up here what do  you do  well let me put up that PowerPoint  over here this is today  and this is a breakout above a wedge we  have a wedge here one  two and three and we tried to break  above the bull channel here failed and  then we tried to break above the top of  the wedge here and failed you could sell  below this Bear bar or you could take a  second short below that neither one is  all that good we're inner Thai trading  range at this point higher probability  to sell the lower bar closing your slow  and sell below that we have another bear  bar closing units load there you can  solve all of that we have a third one  here  but as I said  the slow is right at the 60 Minute  moving average  which is not  good if you're a bear and we have a big  tail here a big tail here if you did  take these shorts I beat up right there  and we close just below the opening the  day so pretty much a bare dodging bar on  the day  in summary we've got a wedge attempt  here but a bad Buy Signal bar and too  many bear bars we broke below it the  breakdown failed we have a good buy  signal bar a reasonable buy for a swing  up and on the way up there's nothing to  sell you would only buy if you exited  below pair bar so you'd buy again above  bull bars closing any of their highs and  then here we're trying to break above  the channel it failed here we broke  below the channel and now we're  reversing down a second time doji bars  not great  but we're probably going to come down  and test the open of the day at a  minimum so you could take those shorts  or you could wait for Bear bars closing  near the lows overall very quiet day a  small day a small range day  all right and that's it I appreciate it  have a good night 

Emini End of Day Review - Monday May 15, 2023 - Brad Wolff

foreign  [Music]  [Music]  so overall a really interesting day as we can see let me start with the daily chart on the daily chart we have had a lot of trading range Trading just look at the chart and when you look at this we've been going up we've been going down we have a  lot of overlapping bars trying to get this better in the middle of the screen there we go so anyways we're in breakout mode and when we look at this chart there's a few things one is we've got the September High which is right here this is September  2nd so two slash two and that is a potential Target we've also got a measured move projection from here  here this is March 13th March 22nd this is 4300.  the most important thing to realize right here is that the market is going sideways and we're in breakout mode we don't know if we're going to go down to 4,000 down here or if we're going to break to the upside what we do know is the probability is very close to 50 50.  and when the probability is close to 50  50 just keep it really simple and assume  all breakouts will fail until proven  otherwise same thing with the daily  chart  today  we had a big first bar  and I'm a really big proponent in saying  that most Traders should wait for the  first couple of bars first six bars  first 12 bars and the reason for that is  it makes it it gives you a lot of  it gives you a better better  understanding of what the day is going  to do  so the first thing I do when I'm  starting out is  if I have nothing on the chart I'm going  to take the obvious yesterday's high  and I'm gonna paint yesterday's low down  here  I know these are two  obvious magnets  and the next thing I'm going to pay  attention to is the open  so here's bar one we know where the open  of the day is  so I'll go ahead and just paint that  and on bar one when you look at that bar  what does it tell you it's a big big bar  it's a possible trap trapping bears  into selling low in a typo Channel  being from here to here yes  but it's a big enough bar it's probably  not going to be a bull Trend therefore  probably sellers above seller scaling  and higher but because the channel down  is tight it's typically better to wait  and see the follow through  bar two is a doji it's a doji bar it's a  bad stop entry by above two one is a big  enough bar probably sellers above in a  second leg down  so when I see one I'm expecting a second  leg down I know the Bears that sold one  are going to be disappointed though  therefore sell the clothes stop up here  but that is a problem if the next bar is  a big bull bar closing on its high you  may have more Traders exit  but the reality is even if we rally up  to here probably sellers above  three a  another doji so it's kind of like a  micro double top up on two down on two  up on three down on three is it sell the  close it might be if you're betting on a  second leg down  and then we get a second leg on four  what about four is it reasonable to sell  the clothes  bar one is big enough we're probably  going to go a little bit lower  and it's always in short from one and  it's probably okay to be short  where's your stop  probably somewhere up here betting on a  second leg down  bar five  two consecutive bear bars at the moving  average still always in short better to  be short than long  tight full Channel and the one thing we  have to be thinking about is is this  going to be a pullback and is this  reality gonna get a second leg  so that's what we don't know is they're  going to sell off to the 72 High the 74  low the 72 low any one of these lows  could be support  six  three consecutive bear bars probably  always in short  and sell the clothes  and then seven we have a pullback  seven it's a possible second entry buy  with two and six but type bear channel  it's still more likely to sell the  clothes and probably gonna go higher  than it is going to go straight down  and then eight we have the Bear bar what  do you notice about the sell-off we went  down on two up on three down on six up  on seven and now we're down on eight  it's a parabolic wedge parabolic wedges  have a higher  the greater risk of a pullback and  sometimes they can lead to an endless  pullback also on the open fifty percent  chance that you get a major reversal  so David asked a question why don't I  consider the price action up to 9 30. I  do consider the price action up to 9:30.  what I'm saying is by waiting for six or  twelve bars in other words if I don't  trade for the first six bars I'm not  saying always do that but what I'm  saying is there's no rush by waiting for  six to 12 bars you gain information like  what do we know right now based on this  open there's there's one thing we can be  pretty sure of and that is the odds of a  strong bull Trend day are very very low  which means the odds favor a bear Trend  or trading range day  so if we go to a 60 Minute chart or  better yet this is let's go to a 15  minute chart  you just find the first two bars of the  day right here  Big Bear bar follow through bar so when  you think about that even though it's  following this big rally  consecutive bear bars it's probably sell  to close and probably going to get at  least a small second leg down therefore  any upside from here is probably going  to be limited  if I go to that yesterday by waiting for  the first six or seven bars increase  risk that  by waiting you gain certainty that  there's probably not going to be another  strong Trend day nine we have a small  bear bar still sell the clothes but  because it's becoming parabolic you have  bar one and then hesitation two and  three  three bars still off to six hesitation  seven Big Bear bar eight hesitation on  nine that and you're at support  fifty percent pullback from the rally  around yesterday it's actually lower  it's probably about 60 percent  this is an area where bulls will  probably start buying  and then you get a bull bar on 10. what  do you do with ten do you buy buff Tim  and when I say another thing someone  mentioned whenever I say yesterday I'm  referring to the prior trading day  you know it's easier by by looking at  the prior day and just saying yesterday  it's easier because it really doesn't  matter this is Friday this is Monday on  this chart the this is the prior days  trading obviously if we go to the es  with the Globex then we would be  referring to the  the you know early morning hours or  Sunday morning hours but when I just say  yesterday  when I'm looking at an es.d especially  if I'm talking about the e-mini five  minute  since I basically only chart on the  Globex if I refer to yesterday I'm  referring to the prior days price action  bet110  you have a bear bar and it's excuse me  it's a bull bar and it's closing on its  high so stop placement is important to  consider if you're you're a bull  better yet if you're a bear and you're  short where would you put your stop you  can put it on  above eight you can put it above seven  or you could put it all the way up here  the point is it's bad risk reward  anywhere  so if you're short here  if you're short at the 10 high and you  put your stop above one  this is your risk all the way this is  your Target and this is your risk so in  order to get one times your wrist  the market would have to fall  they did that again the market would  have to fall  all the way below yesterday and that's  probably not going to happen  and if that's the case then you know  it's bad risk ward in the market it's  probably going to pull back so most  Traders would rather tighten their stop  how would they tighten their stop  they would start looking for prior  higher lows  maybe bar 7 is reasonable so if I sell  the close of 10 stop above 7. now what about the argument of the trader that sold below one can they keep their stop above 10.  it's important to remember that it doesn't matter where you enter what matters is the current market price to your stop so for everybody that's short you're current at the close of 10 your stop is from the close of 10 to wherever you put it that's your risk  and whenever you get two or three pushes down it's reasonable to expect a couple legs up in a test of the prior lower lower high in this case Bar Seven therefore a lot of Traders would consider moving their stop up here and even though they expect it to get hit a lot of  Traders would get out above 10.  why would they get out about 10 because  typically when the market tries to do  something two or three times especially  let me rephrase that whenever the  Market's in a trading range and you get  two or three legs down you often get a  reversal attempt and a couple of legs up  because of that  you will have traders who  will look to take profits and look sell  again higher  so what about buying above 10 it's  probably okay possible lower higher low  from from Friday or yesterday  so probably going higher and then 11  it's a strong entry bar  strong enough sell-off down to nine  probably sellers above and a second leg  down but when you see 11 you look at it  and you think wait something's wrong  with the bare case and even more Traders  will begin to exit why would they exit  because 10 and 11 are strong enough for  a second leg up and if they're strong  enough for a second leg up then you know  there's probably  buyers below and the Market's going to  expect a second leg up and so because of  that we could easily test the three High  the open of the day anywhere in here  and then 13 we have another strong bull  bar now we have four consecutive bull  bars  with three of them closing on their  highs to me  10 through 13 is strong enough for a  second leg up and therefore probably  buyers on the close of 13 scaling in  lower  14 another Bull Bar still buy the  clothes probably going higher 15 same  thing 16 by the close but becoming  climactic it's a micro Channel since 10.  so it's a 16 it's a six bar micro  Channel probably buyers below scaling  and lower  18 or excuse me 17 we have a bull bar a  little bit climactic  but who's gonna sell the channel up is  so tight the first reversal down is  probably going to fail reasonable to  expect higher prices into the moving  average now even reasonable to expect  price to go to the moving the open of  the day  even if we get to the open of the day  what do you think is going to happen  the odds are today is the trading range  and we've had a big sell-off and a big  rally big down big up big confusion what  about the Bulls that bought anywhere  over here you know they're trapped  and because of that  you're going to have Traders  disappointed looking to sell up here  18 Big Bear bar and you can see it  tested the middle of bar one  it went a little bit above it and then  sold off so 18 is a reminder that  Traders are taking profits  foreign  19 is 18's big enough bar it's a little  bit of a surprise probably sellers above  in a second laying down some Traders  bought the clothes of  17 they bought the 17 low they scaled  and lower you know they're going to be  disappointed on 18 and a lot of those  Traders will look to get out on a bounce  20 we have a bull bar testing the high  close 17 probably some sellers up here  scaling in higher but type bull Channel  probably gonna get to the open of the  day  so if you're selling here the reality is  probably better if you can use a wider  stop and with the strength of the  sell-off to 17 three consecutive bull  bars we could easily get an upside  Breakout  but probably second leg down from 18.  22 Another Bull Bar still probably buy the clothes and scale in lower and then a doji on 23 getting close to the opening of the day probably gonna go sideways 24 Bear bar closing on its low some Traders sold above 19 and sold more below 24.  probably use that to get outbreak even and then 27 obviously anybody that sold here and scaled in was able to get out and break even so the Market's forming a  trading range lots of buying pressure though but the Bulls need to overcome this sell-off from one to nine  27 Bear bar at the moving average Bulls bought it 28 strong Bull Bar possible two legs down 25 to 27. what about buying above 28 you can but you're buying in the middle of a tight trading range and there might be more sellers above than buyers  29 we went above 24 and immediately sold off some Traders sold the close of 27 and sold more above 24 and then use the current bar 29  to exit  30. we have another inside bar so we're  starting to get a lot of overlapping  bars and because of that  you know that the market is probably  going to go  more sideways  in general  with the market being above the moving  average it's probably more bullish than  bearish but not by much  and then outside bar inside bar lots of  high trading range price action  whenever you get ili patterns inside out  inside bar outside bar inside bar  or II patterns consecutive inside bars  or oo patterns consecutive outside bars  what that means is  whenever it's in a tight trading range  that is breakout mode patterns and it's  a reminder that whenever whenever you  have a lot of outside bars or inside  bars or really just overlapping bars in  a trading range it's important to  remember that  Traders should expect more sideways  Trading  33 inside bar and then 34 strong bull  Breakout  but you can see what happened on the  next bar Trader sold it so trading range  price action better too late for the  breakout up or down it's a triangle  so better to just wait  36 it's another doji Bulls bought the  close of 34 scaled in lower getting out  on 36.  and 37  Bear bar 38 a bull bar and then 39 bull  bar closing above several bars to the  left still barely always in Long  and then 40 we have a bull breakout  above one  good for the Bulls  probably going to get a little bit  higher but we really need to see the  follow through  and 41 we have another Bull Bar  it's a small bar but with this with the  size of 39 to 41 probably buyers below  scaling and lower  and then 42 and even stronger bar so you  could see a lot of Traders  some Traders they sold  the one high scaled and higher on 41.  so they entered at 44 even though they sold higher at anywhere from 44 to  47.  and you can see the low this bar was 44. So the 42  let me do like this you can see the 42 low tested the one high exactly to the tick so Traders are trapped  I'm gonna move this back to the opening of the day  42 still by the close but an inside bar a doji bar 43 so we have a rally up to  43.  we have a pullback on 42 and a second  leg up to 42. and then a doji so  disappointment so leg one pullback leg  two  and then 44 Bull Bar 45 a  bull bar closing at its midpoint it's a  parabolic wedge even though it doesn't  look obvious and whenever you see  two clear legs up  so the low of 10 the middle of this  trading range rally up to here it's  basically two legs depending on how you  draw it you always have to think about  the left and  when you look to the left here what do  you notice  so let's do it like this  I'm going to make this line really thick  and the reason is if we go to the prior  day  which was Friday on this chart  Bears got trapped Bulls got trapped  buying the three low and  the too low they got trapped during four  so look at this line here what do you  notice  it rallied right back to that area and  turned down  even the Bulls that bought the High  clothes  this High one so we had a gap on Friday  High one on bar two even though it's a  bear bar  came really close to it  the point is  you're still in a trading range on a  higher time frame it's probably easier  to see on like a 60 Minute chart  strong sell-off  that was this morning even  and you can see that aligns even with  the Globex Market parabolic wedge  whenever you get a parabolic wedge and  you have a  you have a rally a lot of trading range  price action over here  and you get a parabolic wedge it's hard  to see but it's basically this  so you're going to Rally to 41 pull back  rally to 42 pullback rally to 45 and  it's parabolic because  it's extreme we know it's a breakout on  a higher time frame but whenever you get  a bear bar like 46 and what could be a  trading range you always have to wonder  if there's more buyers below  or excuse me if there's sellers below so  if the market goes three or four points  below this bar  you may have more Traders conclude  that the market is going that is in a  trading range  and that the market is going to go lower  if it's in a trading range  we could go all the way down here  and if the microphone is quiet let me  know I've had to make some adjustments  on this computer and I've still got a  few more to do so if the mic sounds  quiet I'll turn up the game  47 big enough Bear bar probably at least  a small second leg down some traders  that bought the 45 46 low this Bear bar  will be disappointed and because of that  some of those bulls that bought the 46  low and more lower will look to exit  back at the 46 low and then 48 a big  bear give up bar  sell the clothes 48 but it's a big bar  and it's climactic and look where it is  it's at the open of the day  and because of that  this may be an area of support with  three consecutive bear bars it's  probably sell to close and going lower  small bar 49 still sell the clothes but  you've had a big rally big sell-off big  up big down big confusion probably  sideways it's the opposite of this big  sell-off big rally probably sideways  50  Bear bar  closing above the 49 low  and then 51 a bigger Bear bar  with five consecutive bear bars you  always have to wonder just like here we  had a micro channel from 36 to 46 so we  had a 10 bar micro Channel sharp  sell-off here we have a one two three  four five six bar bear micro Channel you  always have to wonder if we could get a  reversal  doji 52 probably sellers above scaling  and higher  but trading range day  and you always have to wonder if the  micro channel will lead to a sharp  reversal  and a bar like that on 53 whenever I see  a bull bar like 53 it's a big bar  probably buyers Below in a trading range  day  a lot of Traders will exit because the  risk is you're going to get a second leg  up and we could rally all the way up  here before the Bears even get a second  leg down  the sell-off to 48 it's possible that's  leg one  and 49 is a doji and the market gets  second leg down 54 bull bar is it by the  close probably tight bear Channel though  you know there's going to be sellers  somewhere up here  55 a little bit of a tail so warning  that the market may not go that much  higher before it starts to pull back 56  a bull bar and then 57 a doji  so it's kind of a micro double top  up 155 down on 55 up on 56 or 57 down on  57.  58 surprise bear Breakout probably going at least it's enough of a surprise probably gonna go sideways but it was reasonable to buy the 57 low so Bulls bought and scaled and lower Bears who sold and scaled on higher they used 58 to exit but 58 is enough of a surprise probably a second leg down so some Traders buying below this bar or lower  60 doji but probably a second leg up from the rally to 57 Bull Bar 61 micro double bottom down on 58 up on 58 down on 60 or 61 up on 61.  The entry bar is decent for the Bulls and then decent Bull Bar 63 probably gonna get a second leg up and may have to get all the way back to the 46 low so the Bulls bought the 46 low they scaling lower we may have to get all the way up here  64. it's a bull bar it's two legs up 57  pullback here 58 second leg up 64.  second leg up but after four consecutive bull bars really five bull bars really five bull bars probably buy the clothes and go lower but the pullback could be deep foreign  Big Bear bar but after this many bull bars still buy the clothes probably going lower 66.  deep pullback testing a low of 59  probably buyers below and at least a second leg up and then we pretty much went sideways into the close so for always in trading I think that's probably single-handedly the most important thing for people to learn how to trade bar one is always in short arguably maybe Traders sell to close it too in general better to wait for consecutive bear bars but okay to sell One Stop above for a second leg down no reason to get out above seven and then eight Big Bear bar always in Bears get out above 10 because it's a wedge bottom bull bars maybe aggressive Bulls by 10 or 11.  aggressive Bulls buy and where do they get out probably below 24  and I'd probably do nothing in here  Bulls by 38 big It Out Below probably 46 Bear bar 48 second leg down  Bulls by 53.  The bears exit and really tough stand here maybe the Bulls get out a couple points below 64.  but then overall sideways  so go ahead and ask your questions if  you haven't answered so for limit orders  days like today you know everything is  it's filled with limit order Trading  and  probably the easiest limit order trade  of the day buying below either 17 or 16  but you know why it stop and the reality  is if you buy anywhere over here and put  a stop down here you're probably gonna  make  everyone to buy and scale in you're  probably going to make money  probably sellers above 18 for a second  leg down buyers below because of the  rally up to 17 it's typically better to  buy below bars and scale and lower  betting on more sideways  and  what about  buying below bar like 46 46 it's an  inside bar greater risk of a downside  breakout and when you get a bar like 46  it's typically  it's pretty dangerous to buy it's two  legs up this was a strong reversal in  the first leg so the odds were the  market was going to have a second leg up  with all this trading range price action  here  when you get a rally like 46 there's a  greater risk of a deeper pullback  for by stop entries  reasonable to sell below one but big  risk  okay to buy the 10 by above 11 and  what about buying above 28 I would not  selling below 24 I would not  but especially and the reason I wouldn't  typable rally  micro Channel since 19 to 24. so not really ideal and what about selling below 46 you can but that's a pretty aggressive  10 bar micro Channel probably buyers below we ended up getting a breakout though in lower prices reasonable to buy  Above 53 but probably a minor reversal which means sideways and that's probably the last stop entry I would take buy the closed cell to close probably okay to sell the close of one sell the close Six buy the close maybe 11 by the close 13 14 15. you can even buy the closest bar like 18 because of the strong Rally from 10 to 17.  probably buy the clothes 40 will break out of a tight trading range probably going a little bit higher five to close  41 by the close 42. you give even by the close 43 but at some point over here 44  45 best looking Bull Bar of the rally smallest body probably going to go sideways let me tell you what questions a few weeks ago you talked about dojos and how the market normally comes back to them can you explain this a little bit more yeah dojo's a trading range bar and trading ranges in other words two-sided trading or magnets so if you think about the rally from let's say this rectangle let's try that there we go thing about this Thai trading range here this is a  doji on a smaller time frame it's a trading range and it's a magnet you can see the market sold off to it found support and reversed even the rally to  43 that's a doji that's a tight trading range on a smaller time frame and it's a magnet but the point is dojo's overlapping bars increase the risk of a pullback you look at a bar like 18 and 19.  if you notice the midpoint of 18 we tested it on 26 28 we tested it on 51. On some time frame, 18 19, and 20 is a  reversal we went down and then we went up so it's an overlapping bar but tails are magnets inside we have a big tail and an inside bar and then you can see the market tested down in these lower tails and reversed up we have a doji on 49 right here it's a trading range Bar following a Breakout we went down for two bars but look what happened a few bars later we went right back to the doji let's find some other examples you know even though here we sold off  31 32 33 Bull Bar 34. this 34 is buying pressure we sold off on 35.36 on Friday look where we rallied we rallied to the midpoint of the buying pressure then we sold off more and we rallied even above it so they're just magnets really Hey Brad can you expand on the Bulls did a great you know for these  Expressions Bulls did a great job or the Bears want to do X Y and Z yeah when  I say the Bulls did a great job or the  Bears did a great job it's just expressing you know they exceeded the expectation based on probability so 10 we have a stop entry eleven Bulls did a great job of getting a strong entry bar and if I'm you know and I'm expressing that from the standpoint of if I was a bull what would I want to see if I see 10 I'm thrilled if I see 11.  and if I'm a bear and I sold below 46 and then I see a 47 entry bar and 48 strong  Bear bar the Bears did a great job of getting the reversal they'll probably get a second leg down foreign question what are the odds of getting 10  points up before getting 10 points down at the close of bar 11. that is actually a really good question because and I really like this question because Jacob is asking directional probability and that is the single most important thing to understand it's extremely important what's the probability of Market going X number of points down before it goes X number of points up or X points up before it goes  X points down so what's the odds of getting 10 points up before it goes 10 points down to close the bar 11. yeah so you know the  way I would look at that Jacob is this  what's the odds at the market at 11 goes  down to the 10 low before it goes up to  this high  so what's the odds if let's say this is  six points what's the odd that goes up  six points before it goes down six  points and the reality is it's probably  low  and because of that then  look what happened the breakout started  to expand so then you see 12 then you  see 13 you start Task what's the Mark  what's the odds the market goes to the  10 low before it goes the measure move  up or even this rally  we didn't quite get there  but obviously we stopped at one of these  so to me  trading range day  I think that's really important but  eventually the breakout gets too big  it's like the opposite here  I mentioned at the high of one  the odds of getting a measured move of  one is reasonable  the odds of getting a measure moved down  from six to the high of one is less  reasonable than the odds of getting a  measure move from the low of 9 to the  high of one is even less reasonable  so that is certainly  and you could say the same thing for  here the low of 10.  to the high of this at some point the  odds become low but at this point you  can argue sixty percent chance we're  going up here before we're going down  here then we go sideways for X number of  bars and the probability has to be less  than 60 percent  we came close though and so why did we  go sideways because Traders want less  than the risk  everybody expects nobody's confident  there's a sixty percent chance you're  going up to here before you go down here  and by tightening by the risk  Contracting or in other words the range  forming a tight trading range you can  buy Above 39 stop below 36 and have  great risk reward for lower probability  so giving up probability is sometimes a  good thing  foreign  61 a reasonable swing taking a chance we  get back to the bar 45 closed  so it was bar 61.  a reasonable swing taking a chance to  get back to the 55 close up here there's  actually a few reasons I thought that 61  was actually a reasonable buy because  the rally up to 57 was strong enough the  Bears the Bulls should get a second leg  up and because of that  probably by the close Trader Skilling  and lower betting on a second leg up  and then 63-64  buy the clothes  probably going a little bit higher so  yeah I think that's okay  Brad can you explain how to trade wedges  successfully sometimes it's marked as an  entry and in similar situations at least  similar to me it's not what is the clue  yeah it I think the the best wedges to  trade are wedges that are pullbacks from  larger breakouts  so in other words wedge tops  like let's take this what made 10 so  reasonable of a possible low of the day  look to the left  with a strong rally up to here and then  an attempt to reverse the rally  that is a pullback so this could be a  spike pullback and then Channel  what about a wedge on a day like this we  have a wedge bottom eight  14 and maybe over here the problem with  wedge Bottoms in this is It's a wedge  bottom and a bare Channel and that is  lower probability why is it lower  probability because  wedges that are the bedding on the  bottom in in terms of just a channel  when a channel is tight can get its  higher probability to get a downside  breakout there's a higher tendency  if you're betting on a wedge that let's  say is a pullback from an initial move  so let's find an example  here's here's an example of a wedge  pullback we had a strong rally and then  three legs down bear breakout on  this bar reversal up so it's wedge one  two three  that is a better wedge  than trying to pick you know parabolic  wedge here one two three so I hope that  makes sense  how do you know it will start a pullback  I'm not sure  what this person is asking above but can  you explain who trapped two from bar 24  to 39  well there was there was lots of traps  Bulls buying below bars scaling in lower  Bears buying  above bars scaling in higher  so Bulls by below bear sell above back  and forth back and forth then eventually  limit orders got trapped limit order  Traders got trapped on 39 and 40.  can you talk about profit taking 5 10 15  20 and 40 points and how it can be an  opportunity to scalp or swing in the  opposite direction because of profit  taking yeah it's really it's as simple  as this  so let's find an example  psych bar  53 53 is a bull bar after a tight  sell-off to a tight channel the odds are  the Bears will get some kind of second  leg down  so Traders will naturally  look to sell  they see 53 and they'll say okay  we may give a measure move up with a bar  but we probably won't go much higher  because even if we rally this sell-off  is strong is strong enough probably a  trading range so instead of selling the  53 High some Traders sell a measurement  up of the bar  so you can see if you sold  if this Bar's range is let's say five  points and you sold five points Above  This Bar  and the high of the bar is 42.50 so you  sold 47.50  you can see price went one tick above  47.50 and immediately reversed off and  Traders call that a reach trade  and that happens pretty pretty regularly  you know even and really what it what it  means is typically the Market's gone too  far that it reverses so if you take the  you know bar one  the higher bar one lower bar one it went  down all the way to here but if you  bought in this area betting that the  market was going to go back to the one  low before it went another measure moved  down you'd made money  but that is the form that's that's very  common in trading range price action  the low of 10.  to the high of this close the market  came close to a measure move up but didn't  quite get to it and versed off back to  the close So eventually you get a  breakout that's gone too far that it  usually will pull back before it  continues lower  can I see the daily blog updates  I'm going to post it in the comments you  can see them here  and if you want to  find out more about the trading room  so for the person asking about the blogs  you can find them on this website right  here  so if you're looking for the blogs  to this website  do you think it's a good idea to have a  total Point goal for the day after which  you are done trading or is it better to  make the most out of the setups that  present themselves most Traders would be  better off  and they get varies on where someone's  at  the key is to trade small and really  learn the nuances a price action  so  you know I think I think it's certainly  okay to have a point go for the day and  then stop  and if you

're gonna stop you just  continue studying the day  all right so that's all the time I have  for questions today  thanks for watching and I hope everyone  has a good rest of their day  [Music]