Al Brooks - Emini End of Day Review for Tuesday April 11, 2023

[Music]  thank you  hi everyone I'm Al Brooks and I was in  the chat room today until nine o'clock  Pacific time which was bar 30 and I want  to just go over what I saw taking place  today  on the open the first part of the day  was a bear bar but it had a big tail and  the second bar is a bear bar as well the  Bears were hoping that this was the  start of a bear Trend that would last  all day but with those big tails and the  big rally at the end of yesterday it's  more likely a minor reversal we're  probably going to get down at least to  the moving average we're close to the  moving average we have two bear bars we  should get there  we had three consecutive air bars bar  three so for the Bulls they're hoping  it's a high one bull flag after this  full Trend probably would be sellers at  the high of three so I would not buy  Above three and then the Bears they're  getting an early Fair Trend with three  consecutive bear bars but the bear bars  are not big they're not closing on their  lows bar four is a pullback in that bear  Trend but it has a bull body yes I think  we're going to go below bar four I think  we're going to go below the voting  average but I'm not confident that we  will go much lower so I would want to  sell blow bar for we got a couple legs  down we tried to reverse up from the  moving average for seven but it has a  prominent tail a small body it's a high  tube by a second by one and two but  four of the first six bars five of the  first six bars have bare bodies so it's  probably a minor reversal the Bears  tried to get a lower high double top  with nine and four they have an outside  down bar but to me this looks like a  limit order Market it looks like Traders  are buying at new lows and they're  buying blow bars they're selling low  bars and looking for scalps these lines  are five points apart and therefore it's  difficult to make even five points when  the buy bars are this size most Traders  should simply wait for the bars to get  bigger or wait for better signals the  bolts at this point now have a wedge we  have three reversals up one two and  three and it's at the moving average  it's about a fifty percent retracement  of that rally but it's only a doji bar  and six of the first  eight bars have bare bodies so it's not  a very strong buy you could wait for 11  or 11 a bull bar closing near its high  it's not especially big it's a possible  low of the day possible rally  you could buy or you could wait for the  breakout above the high of the day given  the bad buy a single bar and all the  bear bars I think it's probably better  to wait and you can see here we have two  decent sized bull bars 11 and 12 closing  near their highs  but the rally could not even get back to  the open of the day so March 12th the  end of the first hour we opened here  we'd close on there and the first bar  was a bear bar so that's not especially  good for the Bulls the Bears made  another attempt at a double Top This  high this high and another outside down  bar that's a reasonable cell taking a  chance that will break below the wedge  and go for a measure move down I said in  the room today that when you have these  wedge bull flags on the open and the  market breaks below it fifty percent of  the time it'll go down for measured move  based upon the height of the wedge and  fifty percent of the time there'll be  buyers below and you'll reverse up we  broke out 14 below that low but 14 close  above that low so that's not good for  the Bears hoping for a bear Trend and in  15 a bigger Bear bar closing below 10  but did not close below 14. and  therefore it's not very strong selling  the bar it's fine to sell at the lower  of their Trend if the bear trend is  strong but this is not stronger  14 did not close on its low did not  close below 10. 15 closed near its low  but could not close below 14. if a bear  trend is not strong it's usually better  not to sell at the low it's usually  better to sell rallies the Bulls got a  surprisingly good-looking Bull Bar six  game big bull bar closing on its high  and we have a wedged one two and three  we have a breakdown below the wedge and  a reversal up that's a common reversal  pattern on the open so it's an okay  swing I talked about it as being a  Walmart trade where you buy one tick  above your place is stopped one tick  below and you place a limit order to  take profits 20 points above which is up  there and go to Walmart you can come  back in a couple hours and chances are  you'll do just fine so if you bought  that and had a limit order up here it  came back in a couple hours you would  have been disappointed that we've only  gone up about 10 points after a couple  of hours today's range was small  I talked about how  in here the range was only about 15  points strong 20 points tall which is  about half of an average day's range and  you can see in the daily chart over here  that little air doji is today it's a  small range and I said the range would  probably double I said it could double  in one of three ways it could break  above the upside and go up for a measure  move it could break below the downside  and fall for a measure move or it could  go a little bit above in a little bit  below and close somewhere in the middle  it broke above the upside but look at  the breakout bar bar 33  it did not close on its high it did not  close far above the open in fact it  looks like it closed right above the  earlier high and then look at the  follow-through of Bear bar so for the  Bulls at the bull trend  and they're both front seats here we're  getting higher lows we're getting higher  highs and we have a Breakout  we have a high a higher high another  higher high if we have a breakout here  it's a new high today but it's not  strongly bullish the bars are not all  that big they're not closing on their  highs so therefore this bull trend  is not a strong type of bull Trend and  when you get a bull Trend that's not all  that strong normally it's not going to  last all day if we start to get gaps  that remain open it could last all day  but that's not what's happening we broke  above here and this body overlapped  these bodies so we did not even get a  gap between the bodies and then we had  another breakout another breakout here  we have our body Gap there's a gap  between the  body here and the breakout Point bodies  here that's good but these other  breakouts did not have even body gaps  and if you're not getting at least two  body gaps in a bull Trend it's usually  not going to last all day so we know  this is probably not going to last all  day the bars are small and therefore  it's difficult for even limit order  version to make money  selling at new highs so if a bear sold  this high and tried to exit with five  points they did not make money if they  sold this high and tried to exit with  five points did not make money so you  can't sell on the way up even with limit  orders however  buying is not all that good either  normally if you have a good swing by  you're going to get filled within a  couple hours so you'll get your 20  points within a couple hours and that's  not happening here so I'm not good for  the bears but for the Bulls it's not  particularly good either  and when a rally is not all that strong  rather than buying with a stop at a new  high  and betting the breakout will lead to a  big trend is better to buy pullbacks so  the Bulls have what with the stop one  take above that are disappointed by this  the Bulls who bought with a stop one  tick above the high of the day are  disappointed by that tail and by the  bare bars  and these shorts I would not take these  shorts it's the second reversal short  you can call it a wedge three legs up  one two three it's a low tube top second  reversing down from the new high a bear  bar closing there it's low but it's  still a small pullback Trend the  pullbacks are smaller and therefore it's  not a particularly good or short you  could take a chance and sell if you did  you would exit above a bull bar closing  near its high above 39 and if you're in  a bull and if you exited below any Bear  bar that or that and it's reasonable to  exit for a bear bar closing your arms  alone you can buy back  above a bull bar flows in there at Sonic  so reasonable for bolster example of  that you can buy again there and then  this  they barely made Five Points would you  exit below a bull bar I would not I  would exit the size of a scalp below or  bull bar or I'd exit one tick below or  Bear bar closing below is midpoint if  you're exited below 43 right  you'd buy again above a full bar closing  nearest High 46.  I want to show something I'm a  PowerPoint and we're doing it about this  it's still a small political friend but  the Bulls are not making much money  they've had two three hours can make 20  points they could not so something's  wrong with this trend and then I suspect  we're going to come down to test near  the open or near the low and we've  tested below the open  but not all the way down to the low we  tested the 60 Minute moving average for  this dash line which has been important  resistance all day but up here what do  you do  well let me put up that PowerPoint  over here this is today  and this is a breakout above a wedge we  have a wedge here one  two and three and we tried to break  above the bull channel here failed and  then we tried to break above the top of  the wedge here and failed you could sell  below this Bear bar or you could take a  second short below that neither one is  all that good we're inner Thai trading  range at this point higher probability  to sell the lower bar closing your slow  and sell below that we have another bear  bar closing units load there you can  solve all of that we have a third one  here  but as I said  the slow is right at the 60 Minute  moving average  which is not  good if you're a bear and we have a big  tail here a big tail here if you did  take these shorts I beat up right there  and we close just below the opening the  day so pretty much a bare dodging bar on  the day  in summary we've got a wedge attempt  here but a bad Buy Signal bar and too  many bear bars we broke below it the  breakdown failed we have a good buy  signal bar a reasonable buy for a swing  up and on the way up there's nothing to  sell you would only buy if you exited  below pair bar so you'd buy again above  bull bars closing any of their highs and  then here we're trying to break above  the channel it failed here we broke  below the channel and now we're  reversing down a second time doji bars  not great  but we're probably going to come down  and test the open of the day at a  minimum so you could take those shorts  or you could wait for Bear bars closing  near the lows overall very quiet day a  small day a small range day  all right and that's it I appreciate it  have a good night