're gonna stop you just
continue studying the day all
right so that's all the time I have for
questions today thanks for watching and
I hope everyone has a good rest of their
day [Music]
Thursday, October 26, 2023
Emini End of Day Review - Monday May 15, 2023 - Brad Wolff
foreign [Music] [Music]
so overall a really interesting day as we can see let me start with the daily chart on the daily chart we
have had a lot of trading range Trading just look at the chart and when you look at this we've been going up we've been going down we have a lot of overlapping bars trying to get this better in the middle of the screen there we go so anyways we're in breakout mode and when we look at this chart there's a few things one is we've got the September High which is right here this is September 2nd so two slash two and that
is a potential Target we've also got a
measured move projection from here here this is March 13th March 22nd this is 4300.
the most important thing to realize right here is that the market
is going sideways and we're in breakout
mode we don't know if we're going to go
down to 4,000 down here or if we're
going to break to the upside what we do
know is the probability is very close to
50 50. and when the probability is close
to 50 50 just keep it really simple and
assume all breakouts will fail until
proven otherwise same thing with the
daily chart today we
had a big first bar and I'm a really big
proponent in saying that most Traders
should wait for the first couple of bars
first six bars first 12 bars and the
reason for that is it makes it it gives
you a lot of it gives you a better
better understanding of what the day is
going to do so the first thing I do when I'm starting out is if I have nothing on the chart I'm going to take the obvious yesterday's high and I'm gonna paint yesterday's low down here I
know these are two obvious magnets and the next thing I'm going to pay attention to is the open so here's bar one we know where the open of the day is
so I'll go ahead and just paint that
and on bar one when you look at that bar
what does it tell you it's a big big bar
it's a possible trap trapping bears
into selling low in a typo Channel
being from here to here yes but
it's a big enough bar it's probably not
going to be a bull Trend therefore probably
sellers above seller scaling and higher
but because the channel down is tight
it's typically better to wait and see
the follow through bar two is a doji
it's a doji bar it's a bad stop entry by
above two one is a big enough bar
probably sellers above in a second leg
down so when I see one I'm expecting a
second leg down I know the Bears that
sold one are going to be disappointed
though therefore sell the clothes stop
up here but that is a problem if the
next bar is a big bull bar closing on
its high you may have more Traders exit but the reality is even if we rally up to here probably sellers above three a
another doji so it's kind of like a
micro double top up on two down on two
up on three down on three is it sell the
close it might be if you're betting on a
second leg down and then we get a
second leg on four what about four is it
reasonable to sell the clothes bar one is big enough we're probably going to go a little bit lower and it's always in short from one and it's probably okay to be short where's your stop probably somewhere up here betting on a second leg down bar five
two consecutive bear bars at the moving
average still always in short better to
be short than long tight full
Channel and the one thing we have to be
thinking about is is this going to be a
pullback and is this reality gonna get a
second leg so that's what we don't know
is they're going to sell off to the 72
High the 74 low the 72 low any one of
these lows could be support six three
consecutive bear bars probably always in
short and sell the clothes and then seven we have a pullback seven it's a possible second entry buy with two and six but type bear channel it's still more likely to sell the clothes and probably gonna go higher than it is going to go straight down and then eight we have the Bear bar what do you notice about the sell-off we went down on two up on three down on six up on seven and now we're down on eight it's a parabolic wedge parabolic wedges have a higher
the greater risk of a pullback and
sometimes they can lead to an endless
pullback also on the open fifty percent
chance that you get a major reversal
so David asked a question why don't I
consider the price action up to 9 30. I
do consider the price action up to 9:30.
what I'm saying is by waiting for six or
twelve bars in other words if I don't
trade for the first six bars I'm not
saying always do that but what I'm
saying is there's no rush by waiting for
six to 12 bars you gain information like
what do we know right now based on this
open there's there's one thing we can be
pretty sure of and that is the odds of a
strong bull Trend day are very very low
which means the odds favor a bear Trend
or trading range day so if we go
to a 60 Minute chart or better yet this
is let's go to a 15 minute chart you just find the first two bars of the day right here Big Bear bar follow through bar so when you think about that even though it's following this big rally consecutive bear bars it's probably sell to close and probably going to get at least a small second leg down therefore any upside from here is probably going to be limited
if I go to that yesterday by waiting for
the first six or seven bars increase
risk that by waiting you gain
certainty that there's probably not
going to be another strong Trend day
nine we have a small bear bar still sell
the clothes but because it's becoming
parabolic you have bar one and then
hesitation two and three three bars still off to six hesitation seven Big Bear bar eight hesitation on nine that and you're at support fifty percent pullback from the rally around yesterday it's actually lower it's probably about 60 percent this is an area where bulls will probably start buying and then you get a bull bar on 10. what do you do with ten do you buy buff Tim and when I say another thing someone mentioned whenever I say yesterday I'm referring to the prior trading day you know it's easier by by looking at the prior day and just saying yesterday it's easier because it really doesn't matter this is Friday this is Monday on this chart the this is the prior days trading obviously if we go to the es with the Globex then we would be referring to the the you know early morning hours or Sunday morning hours but when I just say yesterday
when I'm looking at an es.d especially
if I'm talking about the e-mini five
minute since I basically only
chart on the Globex if I refer to
yesterday I'm referring to the prior
days price action bet110 you have a bear bar and it's excuse me it's a bull bar and it's closing on its high so stop placement is important to consider if you're you're a bull better yet if you're a bear and you're short where would you put your stop you can put it on
above eight you can put it above seven
or you could put it all the way up here
the point is it's bad risk reward
anywhere so if you're short here if you're short at the 10 high and you put your stop above one this is your risk all the way this is your Target and this is your risk so in order to get one times your wrist the market would have to fall they did that again the market would have to fall
all the way below yesterday and that's
probably not going to happen and
if that's the case then you know it's
bad risk ward in the market it's probably
going to pull back so most Traders would
rather tighten their stop how would they
tighten their stop they would start
looking for prior higher lows maybe bar 7 is reasonable so if I sell the close of 10 stop above 7. now what about the argument of the trader that sold below one can they keep their stop above 10.
it's important to remember that it
doesn't matter where you enter what matters
is the current market price to your stop so for everybody that's short you're current at the close of 10 your stop is from the close of 10 to wherever you put it that's
your risk and whenever you get two or
three pushes down it's reasonable to
expect a couple legs up in a test of the
prior lower lower high in this case Bar
Seven therefore a lot of Traders would consider moving their stop up here and even though they expect it to get hit a lot of Traders would get out above 10. why would they get out about 10 because typically when the market tries to do something two or three times especially let me rephrase that whenever the Market's in a trading range and you get two or three legs down you often get a reversal attempt and a couple of legs up because of that you will have traders who will look to take profits and look sell again higher
so what about buying above 10 it's
probably okay possible lower higher low
from from Friday or yesterday so
probably going higher and then 11 it's a
strong entry bar strong enough sell-off
down to nine probably sellers above and
a second leg down but when you see 11
you look at it and you think wait
something's wrong with the bare case and
even more Traders will begin to exit why
would they exit because 10 and 11 are
strong enough for a second leg up and if
they're strong enough for a second leg
up then you know there's probably buyers below and the Market's going to expect a second leg up and so because of that we could easily test the three High the open of the day anywhere in here and then 13 we have another strong bull bar now we have four consecutive bull bars with
three of them closing on their highs to
me 10 through 13 is strong enough for a second leg up and therefore probably buyers on the close of 13 scaling in lower 14
another Bull Bar still buy the clothes
probably going higher 15 same thing 16
by the close but becoming climactic it's
a micro Channel since 10. so it's a 16
it's a six bar micro Channel probably
buyers below scaling and lower 18 or excuse me 17 we have a bull bar a little bit climactic but who's gonna sell the channel up is so tight the first reversal down is probably going to fail reasonable to expect higher prices into the moving average now even reasonable to expect price to go to the moving the open of the day
even if we get to the open of the day
what do you think is going to happen
the odds are today is the trading range
and we've had a big sell-off and a big
rally big down big up big confusion what
about the Bulls that bought anywhere
over here you know they're trapped
and because of that you're going
to have Traders disappointed looking to
sell up here 18 Big Bear bar and you can
see it tested the middle of bar one it went a little bit above it and then sold off so 18 is a reminder that Traders are taking profits foreign
19 is 18's big enough bar it's a little
bit of a surprise probably sellers above
in a second laying down some Traders
bought the clothes of 17 they
bought the 17 low they scaled and lower
you know they're going to be disappointed
on 18 and a lot of those Traders will
look to get out on a bounce 20 we have a
bull bar testing the high close 17
probably some sellers up here scaling in
higher but type bull Channel probably
gonna get to the open of the day so if you're selling here the reality is probably better if you can use a wider stop and with the strength of the sell-off to 17 three consecutive bull bars we could easily get an upside Breakout
but probably second leg down from 18.
22 Another Bull Bar still probably buy the clothes and scale in lower and
then a doji on 23 getting close to the
opening of the day probably gonna go sideways
24 Bear bar closing on its low some
Traders sold above 19 and sold more
below 24. probably use that to get
outbreak even and then 27 obviously
anybody that sold here and scaled in
was able to get out and break even so the
Market's forming a trading range lots of
buying pressure though but the Bulls
need to overcome this sell-off from one
to nine 27 Bear bar at the moving
average Bulls bought it 28 strong Bull
Bar possible two legs down 25 to 27.
what about buying above 28 you can but
you're buying in the middle of a tight
trading range and there might be more
sellers above than buyers 29 we went above 24 and immediately sold off some Traders sold the close of 27 and sold more above 24 and then use the current bar 29 to exit
30. we have another inside bar so we're
starting to get a lot of overlapping
bars and because of that you know
that the market is probably going to go more sideways
in general with the market being
above the moving average it's probably
more bullish than bearish but not by
much and then outside bar inside bar
lots of high trading range price action whenever you get ili patterns inside out inside bar outside bar inside bar or II patterns consecutive inside bars or oo patterns consecutive outside bars what that means is whenever it's in a tight trading range that is breakout mode patterns and it's a reminder that whenever whenever you have a lot of outside bars or inside bars or really just overlapping bars in a trading range it's important to remember that
Traders should expect more sideways
Trading 33 inside bar and then 34
strong bull Breakout but you can see what happened on the next bar Trader sold it so trading range price action better too late for the breakout up or down it's a triangle so better to just wait 36 it's another doji Bulls bought the close of 34 scaled in lower getting out on 36.
and 37 Bear bar 38 a bull bar and
then 39 bull bar closing above several
bars to the left still barely always in
Long and then 40 we have a bull breakout above one
good for the Bulls probably going
to get a little bit higher but we really
need to see the follow through and 41 we have another Bull Bar it's a small bar but with this with the size of 39 to 41 probably buyers below scaling and lower and then 42 and even stronger bar so you could see a lot of Traders some Traders they sold the one high scaled and higher on 41. so they entered at 44 even though they sold higher at anywhere from 44 to 47. and
you can see the low this bar was 44. So the 42 let me do like this you can see the 42 low tested the one high exactly to the tick so Traders are trapped
I'm gonna move this back to the opening of the day 42 still by the close
but an inside bar a doji bar 43 so we
have a rally up to 43. we have a pullback on 42 and a second leg up to 42. and then a doji so disappointment so leg one pullback leg two and
then 44 Bull Bar 45 a bull bar closing
at its midpoint it's a parabolic wedge
even though it doesn't look obvious and
whenever you see two clear legs up so the low of 10 the middle of this trading range rally up to here it's basically two legs depending on how you draw it you always have to think about the left and
when you look to the left here what do
you notice so let's do it like
this I'm going to make this line really
thick and the reason is if we go to the
prior day which was Friday on this chart Bears got trapped Bulls got trapped buying the three low and the too low they got trapped during four so look at this line here what do you notice
it rallied right back to that area and
turned down even the Bulls that
bought the High clothes this High one so we had a gap on Friday High one on bar two even though it's a bear bar
came really close to it the point
is you're still in a trading range on a higher time frame it's probably easier to see on like a 60 Minute chart strong sell-off that was this morning even and you can see that aligns even with the Globex Market parabolic wedge whenever you get a parabolic wedge and you have a
you have a rally a lot of trading range
price action over here and you
get a parabolic wedge it's hard to see
but it's basically this so you're going
to Rally to 41 pull back rally to 42
pullback rally to 45 and it's parabolic
because it's extreme we know it's a
breakout on a higher time frame but
whenever you get a bear bar like 46 and
what could be a trading range you always
have to wonder if there's more buyers
below or excuse me if there's sellers
below so if the market goes three or
four points below this bar you may have more Traders conclude that the market is going that is in a trading range
and that the market is going to go lower
if it's in a trading range we
could go all the way down here and if
the microphone is quiet let me know I've
had to make some adjustments on this
computer and I've still got a few more
to do so if the mic sounds quiet I'll
turn up the game 47 big enough Bear bar
probably at least a small second leg
down some traders that bought the 45 46
low this Bear bar will be disappointed
and because of that some of those bulls
that bought the 46 low and more lower
will look to exit back at the 46 low and
then 48 a big bear give up bar sell the clothes 48 but it's a big bar and it's climactic and look where it is it's at the open of the day and because of that this may be an area of support with three consecutive bear bars it's probably sell to close and going lower small bar 49 still sell the clothes but you've had a big rally big sell-off big up big down big confusion probably sideways it's the opposite of this big sell-off big rally probably sideways 50 Bear
bar closing above the 49 low and then 51 a bigger Bear bar with five consecutive bear bars you always have to wonder just like here we had a micro channel from 36 to 46 so we had a 10 bar micro Channel sharp sell-off here we have a one two three four five six bar bear micro Channel you always have to wonder if we could get a reversal
doji 52 probably sellers above scaling
and higher but trading range day and you always have to wonder if the micro channel will lead to a sharp reversal
and a bar like that on 53 whenever I see
a bull bar like 53 it's a big bar
probably buyers Below in a trading range
day a lot of Traders will exit
because the risk is you're going to get
a second leg up and we could rally all
the way up here before the Bears even
get a second leg down the sell-off to 48 it's possible that's leg one
and 49 is a doji and the market gets
second leg down 54 bull bar is it by the
close probably tight bear Channel though
you know there's going to be sellers
somewhere up here 55 a little bit
of a tail so warning that the market may
not go that much higher before it starts
to pull back 56 a bull bar and then 57 a
doji so it's kind of a micro double top up 155 down on 55 up on 56 or 57 down on 57. 58
surprise bear Breakout probably going at
least it's enough of a surprise
probably gonna go sideways but it was
reasonable to buy the 57 low so Bulls
bought and scaled and lower Bears who
sold and scaled on higher they used 58
to exit but 58 is enough of a surprise
probably a second leg down so some
Traders buying below this bar or lower 60 doji but probably a second leg up from the rally to 57 Bull Bar 61 micro double bottom down on 58 up on 58 down on 60 or 61 up on 61. The entry bar is decent for the Bulls and then decent Bull Bar 63 probably gonna get a second leg up and may have to get all the way back to the 46 low so the Bulls bought the 46 low they scaling lower we may have to get all the way up here
64. it's a bull bar it's two legs up 57
pullback here 58 second leg up 64.
second leg up but after four consecutive bull bars really five bull bars really
five bull bars probably buy the clothes
and go lower but the pullback could
be deep foreign Big Bear bar but after this many bull bars still buy the clothes probably going lower 66.
deep pullback testing a low of 59
probably buyers below and at least a second leg up and then we pretty
much went sideways into the close so for always in trading I think that's probably single-handedly the most important thing for people to learn how to trade bar one is always in short arguably maybe Traders sell to close it too in general better to wait for consecutive bear bars but okay to sell One Stop above for a second leg down no
reason to get out above seven and then
eight Big Bear bar always in Bears get
out above 10 because it's a wedge bottom
bull bars maybe aggressive Bulls by 10
or 11. aggressive Bulls buy and where do
they get out probably below 24 and I'd probably do nothing in here Bulls by 38 big It Out Below probably 46 Bear bar 48 second leg down Bulls by 53. The bears exit and really tough stand
here maybe the Bulls get out a couple
points below 64. but then overall sideways so go ahead and ask your questions if you haven't answered so for limit orders days like today you know everything is it's filled with limit order Trading and probably
the easiest limit order trade of the day
buying below either 17 or 16 but you
know why it stop and the reality is if
you buy anywhere over here and put a
stop down here you're probably gonna make everyone to buy and scale in you're probably going to make money probably sellers above 18 for a second leg down buyers below because of the rally up to 17 it's typically better to buy below bars and scale and lower betting on more sideways and what
about buying below bar like 46 46 it's
an inside bar greater risk of a downside breakout and when you get a bar like 46 it's typically it's pretty dangerous to buy it's two legs up this was a strong reversal in the first leg so the odds were the market was going to have a second leg up with all this trading range price action here when
you get a rally like 46 there's a greater
risk of a deeper pullback for by stop
entries reasonable to sell below one but
big risk
okay to buy the 10 by above 11 and
what about buying above 28 I would not
selling below 24 I would not but
especially and the reason I wouldn't typable
rally micro Channel since 19 to 24. so
not really ideal and what
about selling below 46 you can but that's a pretty aggressive 10 bar micro Channel
probably buyers below we ended up
getting a breakout though in lower
prices reasonable to buy Above 53 but
probably a minor reversal which means
sideways and that's probably the last
stop entry I would take buy the closed
cell to close probably okay to sell the
close of one sell the close Six buy the
close maybe 11 by the close 13 14 15.
you can even buy the closest bar like 18
because of the strong Rally from 10 to
17. probably buy the clothes 40 will
break out of a tight trading range
probably going a little bit higher five
to close 41 by the close 42. you give
even by the close 43 but at some point
over here 44 45 best looking Bull Bar of
the rally smallest body probably going
to go sideways let me tell you what questions a few weeks ago you talked about dojos and how the market normally comes back to them can you explain this a little bit more yeah dojo's a trading range bar and trading ranges in other words two-sided trading or magnets so if you think about the rally from let's say this rectangle let's try that
there we go thing about this Thai
trading range here this is a doji on a
smaller time frame it's a trading range
and it's a magnet you can see the market
sold off to it found support and
reversed even the rally to 43 that's a
doji that's a tight trading range on a smaller time frame and it's a magnet but the point is dojo's overlapping bars increase the risk of a pullback you look at a bar like 18 and 19. if you notice the midpoint of 18 we tested it on 26 28 we tested it on 51. On some time frame, 18 19, and 20 is a reversal we went down and then we went up so it's an overlapping bar but tails are magnets inside we have a big tail and an inside bar and then you can see the market tested down in these lower tails and reversed up we have a doji on 49 right here it's a trading range Bar following a Breakout we went down for two bars but look what happened a few bars later we went right back to the doji let's find some
other examples you know even though
here we sold off 31 32 33 Bull Bar 34.
this 34 is buying pressure we sold off on 35.36 on Friday look where we rallied we rallied to the midpoint of the buying pressure then we sold off more and we rallied even above it so they're just magnets really Hey
Brad can you expand on the Bulls did a
great you know for these Expressions
Bulls did a great job or the Bears want
to do X Y and Z yeah when I say the
Bulls did a great job or the Bears did a
great job it's just expressing you know they exceeded the expectation based on probability so 10 we have a stop entry eleven Bulls did a great job of getting a strong entry bar and if I'm you know and I'm expressing that from the standpoint of if I was a bull what would I want to see if I see 10 I'm thrilled if I see 11. and if
I'm a bear and I sold below 46 and then
I see a 47 entry bar and 48 strong Bear
bar the Bears did a great job of getting
the reversal they'll probably get a
second leg down foreign question what are the odds of getting 10 points up before getting 10 points down at the close of bar 11. that is actually a really good question because and I really like this question because Jacob is asking directional probability and that is the single most important thing to understand it's
extremely important what's the probability
of Market going X number of points down
before it goes X number of points up or
X points up before it goes X points down so what's the odds of getting 10 points up before it goes 10 points down to close the bar 11. yeah so you know the way I would look at that Jacob is this what's the odds at the market at 11 goes down to the 10 low before it goes up to this high
so what's the odds if let's say this is
six points what's the odd that goes up
six points before it goes down six
points and the reality is it's probably
low and because of that then look what happened the breakout started to expand so then you see 12 then you see 13 you start Task what's the Mark what's the odds the market goes to the 10 low before it goes the measure move up or even this rally we didn't quite get there but obviously we stopped at one of these so to me
trading range day I think that's
really important but eventually the
breakout gets too big it's like the
opposite here I mentioned at the high of
one the odds of getting a measured move
of one is reasonable the odds of getting a measure moved down from six to the high of one is less reasonable than the odds of getting a measure move from the low of 9 to the high of one is even less reasonable so that is certainly and you could say the same thing for here the low of 10. to the high of this at some point the odds become low but at this point you can argue sixty percent chance we're going up here before we're going down here then we go sideways for X number of bars and the probability has to be less than 60 percent we came close though and so why did we go sideways because Traders want less than the risk
everybody expects nobody's confident
there's a sixty percent chance you're
going up to here before you go down here
and by tightening by the risk Contracting
or in other words the range forming a
tight trading range you can buy Above 39
stop below 36 and have great risk reward
for lower probability so giving up
probability is sometimes a good thing foreign
61 a reasonable swing taking a chance we
get back to the bar 45 closed so
it was bar 61. a reasonable swing taking
a chance to get back to the 55 close up
here there's actually a few reasons I
thought that 61 was actually a
reasonable buy because the rally up to
57 was strong enough the Bears the Bulls
should get a second leg up and because
of that probably by the close Trader
Skilling and lower betting on a second
leg up and then 63-64 buy the clothes probably going a little bit higher so yeah I think that's okay Brad can you explain how to trade wedges successfully sometimes it's marked as an entry and in similar situations at least similar to me it's not what is the clue yeah it I think the the best wedges to trade are wedges that are pullbacks from larger breakouts so in other words wedge tops like let's take this what made 10 so reasonable of a possible low of the day look to the left with a strong rally up to here and then an attempt to reverse the rally that is a pullback so this could be a spike pullback and then Channel what about a wedge on a day like this we have a wedge bottom eight 14 and maybe over here the problem with wedge Bottoms in this is It's a wedge bottom and a bare Channel and that is lower probability why is it lower probability because wedges that are the bedding on the bottom in in terms of just a channel when a channel is tight can get its higher probability to get a downside breakout there's a higher tendency if you're betting on a wedge that let's say is a pullback from an initial move so let's find an example here's here's an example of a wedge pullback we had a strong rally and then three legs down bear breakout on this bar reversal up so it's wedge one two three
that is a better wedge than
trying to pick you know parabolic wedge
here one two three so I hope that makes
sense how do you know it will start a
pullback I'm not sure what this person is asking above but can you explain who trapped two from bar 24 to 39 well
there was there was lots of traps Bulls
buying below bars scaling in lower Bears
buying above bars scaling in higher so Bulls by below bear sell above back and forth back and forth then eventually limit orders got trapped limit order Traders got trapped on 39 and 40. can you talk about profit taking 5 10 15 20 and 40 points and how it can be an opportunity to scalp or swing in the opposite direction because of profit taking yeah it's really it's as simple as this
so let's find an example psych
bar 53 53 is a bull bar after a tight sell-off to a tight channel the odds are the Bears will get some kind of second leg down
so Traders will naturally look to
sell they see 53 and they'll say okay we may give a measure move up with a bar but we probably won't go much higher because even if we rally this sell-off is strong is strong enough probably a trading range so instead of selling the 53 High some Traders sell a measurement up of the bar
so you can see if you sold if
this Bar's range is let's say five points
and you sold five points Above This Bar and the high of the bar is 42.50 so you sold 47.50
you can see price went one tick above
47.50 and immediately reversed off and
Traders call that a reach trade and
that happens pretty pretty regularly you
know even and really what it what it means
is typically the Market's gone too far
that it reverses so if you take the you
know bar one the higher bar one lower
bar one it went down all the way to here
but if you bought in this area betting
that the market was going to go back to
the one low before it went another
measure moved down you'd made money but that is the form that's that's very common in trading range price action the low of 10. to the high of this close the market came close to a measure move up but didn't quite get to it and versed off back to the close So eventually you get a breakout that's gone too far that it usually will pull back before it continues lower can I see the daily blog updates I'm going to post it in the comments you can see them here and if you want to find out more about the trading room so for the person asking about the blogs you can find them on this website right here so
if you're looking for the blogs to this
website do you think it's a good idea to
have a total Point goal for the day
after which you are done trading or is
it better to make the most out of the
setups that present themselves most
Traders would be better off and they get varies on where someone's at the
key is to trade small and really learn
the nuances a price action so you know I think I think it's certainly okay to have a point go for the day and then stop
and if you
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